A new YouGov poll indicates substantial losses for the Labour Party in the upcoming London local elections, with the Green Party and Reform UK expected to make significant gains.

Projected Losses for Labour

The research suggests a major breakthrough for both the Green Party and Reform UK, challenging Labour’s long-held dominance in the capital. The poll projects Labour is on course for its worst London result in 50 years.

Green and Reform UK Gains

The poll projects the Greens to achieve the highest vote share in four London boroughs – Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham, and Waltham Forest – all traditionally Labour strongholds. Reform UK is predicted to lead in three boroughs: Barking and Dagenham, Bromley, and Havering.

Fragmented Political Landscape

Based on extensive voter polling, Labour is on track to win the highest vote share in only 15 councils, a decrease of six compared to 2022. All five major English parties – Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Reform – are expected to secure double-digit vote shares.

Shifting Voter Support

Labour’s support has dropped significantly to around 26%, a 16-percentage-point decline since 2022. The Conservatives are also experiencing a decrease, falling nine points to 17%. The Greens are the biggest beneficiaries, with their support surging to 22%, a 10-point increase. Reform UK has seen an even more dramatic rise, moving from near zero percent in 2022 to a projected 14%.

Wider Implications

The Ipsos UK survey reveals that nearly half of London voters (49%) are considering voting Green on May 7th. The potential for substantial losses has put pressure on Keir Starmer, with allies bracing for a possible leadership challenge after the elections.

Broader UK Elections

The upcoming elections encompass not only London council contests but also elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd, making this a crucial test for all major parties across the UK. YouGov’s head of elections, Patrick English, highlighted the fragmented nature of the vote, noting that the largest party vote shares could be as low as 23-25% in some councils.

The results are expected to reflect widespread voter dissatisfaction, particularly concerning the cost of living and a desire for radical change. This data suggests a significant realignment of political allegiances in London, with voters increasingly open to supporting alternative parties.