Iran Conflict and Rising Fuel Theft in the UK

The ongoing conflict involving Iran is contributing to persistently high fuel prices in the United Kingdom, extending beyond disruptions to global oil markets. A significant surge in fuel theft is also playing a key role in keeping prices elevated.

Slower Price Reductions Due to Criminal Activity

While pump prices for both petrol and diesel are showing tentative signs of easing after reaching four-year highs, the reduction is slower than anticipated. Forecourts are absorbing the financial impact of increased criminal activity, preventing prices from falling as quickly as they should.

Increase in 'Bilking' Incidents

Industry reports indicate a 13 percent rise in ‘bilking’ – driving off without paying for fuel – in the 50 days following the escalation of conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Concerns are mounting that these thefts will become even more prevalent as long as fuel costs remain high, especially with the vital Strait of Hormuz remaining a potential point of disruption.

Financial Impact on Motorists

The RAC Foundation estimates a ‘war premium’ of £1.62 billion has been added to fuel costs since February 28th. Diesel drivers have borne the brunt of this increase, accounting for £1.21 billion, a cost often passed on to consumers.

Growing Trend of Payment Issues

Debt recovery firm Forecourt Eye reveals a worrying trend: a growing number of drivers admitting they cannot afford to pay for fuel, alongside a rise in deliberate drive-offs. Recent incidents, such as CCTV footage released by North Wales Police of a woman allegedly involved in petrol thefts in Gwynedd, highlight the escalating problem.

Current Fuel Prices

As of Wednesday, the average petrol price stood at 157.3p per litre (24.5p higher than February 28th, but down 1p from its peak on April 15th). Diesel averaged 189.9p per litre (47.5p higher than the end of February, and 1.5p down from its monthly peak). 114 forecourts are still charging £2 or more per litre for diesel, with another 4,354 selling it between 190p and 199.9p.

Data on Fuel Theft Incidents

Forecourt Eye’s data shows approximately 179 fuel theft incidents occur daily, totaling around 6,900 litres stolen every 24 hours. ‘Means of no payment’ incidents have increased by 20 percent (from 44 to 53 daily) between February 28th and April 19th, while drive-offs are up 10 percent (from 114 to 125). The majority of these incidents involve first-time offenders, a number that has risen by 16 percent since the conflict began.

Organized Theft and Older Methods

Beyond simple drive-offs, there’s evidence of organized gangs using jerry cans and concealed containers to bulk bilk, selling the stolen fuel on the black market. Older methods of fuel theft, such as siphoning and drilling into fuel tanks, are also on the rise, with reports emerging from areas like Clacton-on-Sea and Grantham.

Forecourt Eye concludes that the initial response to soaring prices has evolved into a ‘sustained and accelerating shift’ in fuel theft and payment avoidance.