Vice President JD Vance has publicly cast doubt on whether President Donald Trump will sign off on a tentative ceasefire agreement with Iran, even as U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reportedly reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the existing three-month ceasefire by 60 days and launch new nuclear talks, according to a U.S. official. Iran has not yet confirmed any agreement, and Vance emphasized ongoing deliberation over specific language points. The fragile ceasefire faces strain from recent incidents and unresolved issues including Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The 60-Day Extension and the 440.9 kg Uranium Question

Under the tentative terms, the ceasefire would be extended by 60 days,during which negotiations would address Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile—measured at 440.9 kilograms enriched up to 60% purity, a level the International Atomic Energy Agency considers a short technical step from weapons-grade mateial. the future of enrichment activities is a central unresolved issue, with Vance noting that specifics would be hammered out in subsequent talks, as reported by the U.S. official. The 440.9 kg figure underscores the urgency of the nuclear standoff, a key driver of the diplomatic effort.

Strait of Hormuz: Mine Removal and Toll Ban as Sticking Points

A critical element of the agreement stipulates that Iran must remove all mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and cannot impose tolls on the vital oil transit route, which Iran had effectively closed, inflating global oil prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates oil prices could drop swiftly upon deal finalization, according to the U.S. official. However, Vance's remarks indicate Trump's approval remains uncertain, leaving the future of the strait's accessibility in question. The route carries about one-fifth of the world's petroleum.

Iran's Non-Confirmation and the Link to Israeli Operations in Lebanon

Iran has not officially confirmed any agreement,and Iranian officials have insisted that any deal must also end Israeli military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, linking regional developments to the nuclear talks.. This condition complicates the negotiations, as the U.S. and Israel have different positions on the conflict.. without Iran's public affirmation,the tentative accord remains fragile, and the open question of what leverage Iran's demand provides in the 60-day window looms large.

Third-Party Custodians: Trump's Discomfort with Russia or China

As part of potential oversight of Iran's enriched uranium, third-party custodians like Russia or China were mentioned, but President Trump expressed discomfort with that idea, Vance stated. The report does not clarify whether alternative custodians are under consideration, leaving a key diplomatic unknown.. This discomfort may reflect broader U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia tensions, adding another layer of uncertainty to the already tentative deal.