Donald Trump’s job approval rating is declining, a trend reflected in multiple recent polls. This isn’t necessarily positive news for the president, but it presents challenges for others as well.

Approval Ratings Plummet

A compilation of recent polls, including those from CNN, YouGov, the Associated Press, and Quinnipiac University, show President Trump’s approval rating slipping below 40% for the first time in his second term. This decline coincides with the start of the conflict in Iran and its subsequent economic repercussions.

Much of this drop in support comes from independent, non-white, and younger voters who previously gave Trump the benefit of the doubt. Even some conservative voters are expressing increasing dissatisfaction with his performance, particularly regarding inflation and the economy.

Polarization and Political Structure

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut stated last month, “Donald Trump is one of the most unpopular presidents at this point in his presidency in history.” Despite this, experts suggest that these low approval ratings may not significantly alter Trump’s political trajectory or hasten the end of the war.

The Impact of Partisanship

Political polarization in the U.S. has intensified over the past two decades, leading to depressed presidential approval ratings overall. It’s become increasingly difficult for a president to win over voters from the opposing party in a lasting way. Presidents like Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush once enjoyed broader bipartisan support, a phenomenon that may be rare today.

Partisanship also appears to set limits on how low a president’s approval can fall. Historical examples of presidents facing severe disapproval ratings come from eras with less intense political polarization.

Systemic Constraints

The U.S. political system further insulates Trump from the consequences of his declining public support. Unlike parliamentary systems, the U.S. has fixed election schedules and presidential terms. The constitutional order of succession would automatically place Vice President J.D. Vance in office should Trump were to leave before his term ends.

Trump's Defiant Approach

Trump has consistently demonstrated a willingness to proceed with unpopular policies, regardless of public opinion. He has pardoned individuals involved in the January 6th attack, pursued controversial policy changes, and continues to assert a positive narrative regarding the Iran conflict, stating, “We’ve beaten and completely decimated Iran—they are decimated, both militarily and economically and every other way.”

Impact on the Republican Party

While Trump’s low approval ratings may not constrain him, they could significantly harm his party. Historically, there’s a correlation between a president’s job approval and his party’s performance in midterm elections. Democrats have been gaining ground in special elections and currently lead in the race for Congress.

Turnout and Voter Demographics

The voters likely to participate in the upcoming November elections are expected to be more educated, politically engaged, and motivated – demographics that generally favor Democrats. This could amplify the negative impact of Trump’s unpopularity on the Republican Party.

Uncertainty and Future Scenarios

The future remains uncertain. Factors like the duration of the war, gas prices, and the overall economy could influence Trump’s popularity. In 2018, Republicans suffered a significant defeat in the House during Trump’s first midterm, but managed to retain control of the Senate due to favorable map conditions.

Republican Responses

Some Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump, while others are actively courting his support. A notable number of congressional Republicans – 39 at last count – have resigned, declined to seek reelection, or chosen to run for different offices, mirroring a trend from Trump’s previous midterm elections.