President Trump announced during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that the war with Iran is “nearing completion,” characterizing the conflict as a success. However, the administration’s stated accomplishments and demonstrable progress remain unclear, particularly concerning the destruction of Iranian missiles and the weakening of its regional proxies.

First Formal Address on the Conflict

Chancellor Merz’s visit on March 3rd marked the first by a European leader since the U.S. and Israel initiated strikes against Iran. President Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation on Wednesday, claiming that the administration’s goals in Iran have been nearly achieved. This speech was his first formal address regarding the war since the U.S. and Israel began military operations more than a month ago.

Framing the Conflict as a Victory

With rising gas prices impacting public support, Trump sought to portray the conflict positively. “In these past four weeks,” he stated, “our armed forces have delivered swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield.” Despite this assertion, the administration’s list of accomplishments and actual progress are mixed and unclear, as the president also discusses potential exit strategies.

Initial Military Objectives and Current Status

When announcing the initial strikes on Iran, Trump outlined several military objectives: destroying Iran’s missiles, its Navy, preventing destabilization by its proxies, and preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. While some progress has been made in reducing damage from Iranian missiles – with a decrease in strikes since the war began – assessments indicate that only approximately one-third of Iran’s missile capabilities have been eliminated. An Iranian missile strike on a U.S. base in Saudi Arabia last week injured U.S. troops.

Weakening Iran’s Proxies

The extent of progress in weakening Iran’s proxies remains unclear. Israel has invaded Lebanon to counter attacks from Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group. However, Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue to pose a challenge.

Nuclear Weapon Concerns

Progress on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is also ambiguous, with Trump offering contradictory statements. He initially claimed, “They will have no nuclear weapon, and that goal has been attained.” However, he later suggested that a future president might need to address the issue again, stating they won’t be able to develop a nuclear weapon for years, but a future president “will go there and he’ll knock the hell out of them again.”

Shifting Goals and Regime Change

An initial goal of helping Iranians overthrow their government, expressed on February 28th – “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take” – has received less attention recently. Trump also previously discussed a U.S. role in selecting Iran’s new leader following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but Iranian officials dismissed this idea. In his Wednesday speech, Trump claimed regime change had already occurred due to the deaths of original leaders, describing the new group as “less radical and much more reasonable.”

Timeline and Growing Headwinds

Trump stated he expects to complete all military objectives “shortly, very shortly,” and reiterated a timeframe of two to three weeks for further action. This focus on signaling an end to the war coincides with growing challenges for the administration. Iran has curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane, leading to higher oil prices – gasoline in the U.S. now averages higher costs – and potentially impacting a wide range of products. The strait’s closure also raised the price of some fertilizers.

Political Considerations

Trump also indicated he is considering withdrawing from NATO due to the lack of support from member nations in the conflict. The administration has confirmed a visit from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte next week. The war is also impacting Trump’s approval ratings and causing divisions within his political base, as some supporters struggle to reconcile the conflict with his past promises to avoid foreign interventions.

Perspective and Comparison

Trump attempted to contextualize the conflict by comparing it to past U.S. wars, stating, “It’s very important that we keep this conflict in perspective.” He highlighted the lengths of U.S. involvement in previous conflicts, such as the over eight-year involvement in Iraq, and emphasized that the current operation has lasted 32 days.