US President Donald Trump is signaling a potential withdrawal from the conflict with Iran, a move that would not involve toppling the Islamic Republic, securing access to the Strait of Hormuz, or reaching a comprehensive agreement with Tehran to halt attacks on the United States and its allies.

A Potentially Emboldened Iran

Despite President Trump’s claim that his “one goal” of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon “has been attained,” concerns remain. While the US has targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium remain unaccounted for. Experts believe that Iran may now be more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon, particularly following the death of the previous Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who had previously banned its development.

Hardliners Gain Influence

With the removal of Khamenei, hardliners within Iran are increasingly demanding the weaponization of the nuclear program, arguing that a nuclear threshold status was insufficient to deter attacks. A US exit would leave in place a more hardline regime, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gaining greater influence and likely intensifying crackdowns on dissent.

Global Economic Risks Remain

An early US exit could be interpreted as a failure to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil transport. President Trump has suggested that securing the strait is the responsibility of nations that rely on Middle Eastern energy supplies, but markets operate globally.

Weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz

Without an agreement to reopen the strait, Iran could impose its sovereignty over the waterway, potentially charging tolls of up to $2 million per ship. This could create a new revenue stream for Tehran and disrupt the global economy. While increased oil flow is possible if states seek permission from Iran to transit, it would set a dangerous precedent.

Gulf Security Concerns

During the conflict, Iran launched direct attacks against Gulf Arab nations and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to their oil shipments. A quick US exit without a resolution could leave these nations vulnerable to future attacks and subject to Iranian control over their oil exports.

A Broken Pledge of Protection

This withdrawal could also raise questions about the US commitment to protecting its Gulf allies, particularly given pledges of protection in exchange for significant investments. President Trump’s promise to “protect you” during a visit to Qatar could be seen as broken if Gulf states are left to fend for themselves.

Israel's Potential Actions

A US exit could influence Israel’s actions, as it has previously continued strikes against adversaries even after ceasefires. Israel signaled a desire to weaken the Iranian regime, and a US withdrawal could lead to continued Israeli operations.

Restraint and Reciprocity

While the US has previously restrained Israel, there’s no guarantee Iran will reciprocate. Iran seeks assurances against future attacks and a comprehensive agreement addressing conflict in Lebanon, where Israel has intensified its campaign against Hezbollah following their support for Iran.