The NBA Draft Lottery, intended to combat tanking, has instead fostered a system that smart teams can easily manipulate. This issue has escalated to a point where current league proposals are unlikely to provide a definitive fix.

Tanking Reaches a Crisis Point

Following a recent 19-point loss to the Lakers, Washington Wizards coach Brian Keefe maintained an upbeat outlook in a sparsely attended postgame interview on Monday night. Keefe focused on the positive development of his young players, noting, “We’re putting some guys in situations to learn and grow.”

However, the tangible result of the game was another loss, dropping the Wizards to 17–58, statistically tied for the worst record in the NBA. While the team aims for future success, they currently find themselves among those openly accepting losses, similar to the strategy behind midseason trades for Anthony Davis and Trae Young.

Commissioner Silver's Response and Current Proposals

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has firmly stated, “We are going to fix it. Full stop.” The problem, once a minor nuisance reduced by flattened odds and a play-in tournament, has become a major issue.

The extent of the problem was evident when Silver fined two teams six-figure sums in February due to brazen tanking. The Board of Governors is set to vote on new anti-tanking measures in May. League sources indicate that several proposals are on the table.

  • Two proposals would expand the lottery field to 18 teams.
  • One proposal suggests expanding the lottery to 22 teams.
  • Other tweaks involve flattening odds for the bottom 10 teams or weighting results based on the prior two seasons.

The complexity of these options leaves many confused, including fans and reporters. It is possible that only parts of these plans will be adopted, creating an entirely new system.

A History of Lottery Revisions and Failures

The lottery system, first implemented in 1985, has seen multiple revisions. Before 2019, only the top three picks were determined by the draw. Since 2019, the lottery covers the top four selections, with the three worst teams sharing flattened 14% odds.

While the lottery provides mid-spring television intrigue, it has failed in its primary goal: combating tanking. Forty years later, tanking is more prevalent than ever. Sustainable team building outside of major markets like New York, Los Angeles, or Miami often relies heavily on the draft.

Draft Success Stories and Lottery Misfortune

Recent champions underscore the importance of high draft picks. Oklahoma City was built through the draft, as were the foundations of the Golden State dynasty (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green). The Charlotte Hornets' current success is also rooted in top-four picks like LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

Last spring’s lottery proved disastrous for rebuilding franchises. Utah, Washington, and Charlotte held the best odds for the No. 1 pick but missed out. Instead, Dallas secured the top selection with only a 1.8% chance, followed by San Antonio and Philadelphia. This resulted in top prospects like Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe going to teams already possessing entrenched star players.

The Simplest Path: Abolish the Lottery

The current proposals are viewed as potentially worsening the situation. Expanding the lottery field only increases the chances of a non-rebuilding team benefiting from a high pick.

The author argues for a simpler, definitive solution: eliminating the lottery entirely. Between 1966 and 1984, the worst teams in each conference flipped a coin for the top spot, with subsequent picks ordered inversely by record.

Returning to an NFL-style inverse order could include protections, such as blocking teams from top-four picks in consecutive seasons. While imperfect, decades of lottery manipulation suggest that no complex system is foolproof.

Whatever the NBA does to tweak the lottery, shrewd organizations will find loopholes. Eliminating the lottery sends the best players directly to the franchises with the worst records, offering them genuine hope and potentially mitigating the incentive to tank annually. This provides a necessary alternative when tanking proves an unsolvable problem under the current structure.

Keefe's Focus on Process Amidst Losing

Coach Keefe, who took over the Wizards in 2024, understands the rebuilding reality. Washington is on track for a record comparable to last season’s 18–64 finish, fielding unproven talent due to injuries to key players like Anthony Davis and Young.

Keefe remains committed to the team's development, stating, “I love our group. We got a fun group. Like I said, they come to work every day.” He emphasizes that despite the lack of team success, significant growth is occurring among the young players, which will benefit them moving forward.

“The process has been right,” Keefe concluded. “Sometimes we don’t always make the shots. Sometimes we don’t do it, but the process of what we’re trying to do and the mindset has been correct.”