On August 11, 2026, the Fourth Criminal Court in Damascus sentenced Bashar Assad and his brother to death in absentia. While the new administration under President al Sharaa seeks justice for war crimes, Russia continues to shelter the ousted leader in Moscow.
The Fourth Criminal Court's death sentence for Atef Najib and Bashar Assad
The ruling by the Fourth Criminal Court in Damascus serves as a symbolic cornerstone for the new Syrian government. Judge Fakhreddine al Aryan stated during the proceedings that Bashar Assad utilized state agencies to carry out crimes against humanity and war crimes. while Bashar Assad and his brother Maher were sentenced in abbsentia, their maternal cousin, Atef Najib, was sentenced in person for his role in the Daraa crackdown that helped ignite the Syrian civil war.
According to the report, the Syrian government is utilizing this "memory of bitterness" to unify a disparate group of rebels who fought from 2011 to 2024. By centering the national identity on the shared hatred of the Assad family, President al Sharaa aims to maintain stability among factions that have little else in common.
Joint training centers at Tartous and Khmeimim bases
Despite the judicial condemnation of the former president, Syria is not severing ties with Moscow. A recently signed memorandum of understanding dictates a new phase of military cooperation between Syria and Russia. Under this agreement, Russia will transfer control of the civilian sections of its naval base in Tartous and its military base at Khmeimim to the Syrian government, converting the facilities into joint training centers.
The Foreign Ministry's Media and Communications Department argues that this is a rational calculation. As the report says, Damascus has determined that the cost of punishing Russia for its historical support of Bashar Assad outweighs the benefits of a total diplomatic break.
Why Putin protects allies in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali
The likelihood of Russia extraditing Bashar Assad is viewed by analysts as nearly zero. This protection is not merely about the individual, but about the Kremlin's brand as a reliable partner for strongmen. By providing a "comfortable retirement" for ousted leaders, Vladimir Putin signals to current allies in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali—who face their own internal insurgencies—that Moscow will not abandon them if they lose power.
This relationship is rooted in a decisive 2015 intervention by Russia that saved the Assad government from collapse, confining rebels to a small enclave around Idlib until the conflict froze in March 2020. without this Russian support, the source notes that Bashar Assad would likely have been removed from power nearly a decade earlier.
The $1 billion debt and Soviet-era military hardware
The pragmatic alliance between President al Sharaa and Moscow is reinforced by severe material dependencies. syria currently carries an inherited debt of roughly $1 billion to Russia and remains heavily reliant on Russian exports of energy and wheat. furthermore, the Syrian military is almost entirely equipped with Soviet and Russian hardware, requiring Moscow's technical expertise for maintenance and repair.
Replacing this entire military infrastructure with equipment from the United States or Turkey would be a monumental task for a war-ravaged nation. Consequently, the new Syrian administration has opted to operate within existing Russian templates rather than risk a total systemic collapse during a transition.
Will the U.S. and Gulf states successfully pressure President al Sharaa?
A critical unknown remains whether the United States and various Gulf states can convince President al Sharaa to eject the Russian military presence entirely. While there is significant international pressure to do so, the current trajectory suggests that the Syrian government views Russian leverage—including Moscow's veto power in the UN Security Council—as too dangerous to provoke.
It remains unclear if the Syrian government has set any specific conditions for the future of the Tartous and Khmeimim bases beyond the current joint-training agreement, or if the "rational calculation" mentioned by the Foreign Ministry is a temporary measure to ensure immediate survival.
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