A recent Susquehanna Polling & Research survey released on Tuesday reveals Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro with a substantial lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity. The poll signals increasing difficulties for Garrity as the November midterm election approaches.

Shapiro's Commanding Lead

The survey, conducted March 18-29 among 700 likely voters, shows Shapiro with 58 percent support compared to Garrity’s 36 percent. Five percent of voters remain undecided. The poll has a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points.

Pennsylvania's Shifting Political Landscape

Pennsylvania has demonstrated a tendency to swing between parties in recent elections. Voters supported Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election and Donald Trump in 2024, making the state a key focus for both national parties.

Polling Trends Throughout the Cycle

Shapiro’s lead has consistently widened throughout the election cycle. A Franklin & Marshall College poll in late February showed Shapiro ahead by 20 points (48 percent to 28 percent). A Quinnipiac University survey from the same month indicated an 18-point lead (55 percent to 37 percent). An earlier Quinnipiac poll from September 2025 measured Shapiro’s advantage at 16 points (55 percent to 39 percent).

Trump's Endorsement Fails to Boost Garrity

Despite receiving an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, Garrity has struggled to gain significant traction against the incumbent governor. Political analysts have taken note of this trend.

Race Shifts to “Solid Democrat”

The Cook Political Report shifted the race rating from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat” in March. This decision was based on Shapiro’s consistent 60 percent approval rating, substantial financial advantage, and decisive lead in polling data. The report stated the shift effectively removes Pennsylvania’s statewide race “off the 2026 playing field.”

Echoes of Shapiro's 2022 Victory

Shapiro’s current margin mirrors his strong performance in the 2022 election against state Senator Doug Mastriano, which he won by over 15 points. This suggests ongoing challenges for Republicans in statewide races within Pennsylvania.

Statements from the Candidates

Josh Shapiro stated, “Here in Pennsylvania, we work every day to bring people together and Get Shit Done to move our Commonwealth forward. Whether it’s cutting taxes seven times in my first term, delivering historic funding for our public schools, creating over 22,000 new jobs, or funding law enforcement all across Pennsylvania, I’m proud to be a GSD Governor — but our work isn't done yet.”

Stacy Garrity commented, “I am honored to receive the endorsement of President Donald Trump. In 2016, President Trump did what no Republican nominee in 28 years was able to accomplish – win the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And in 2024, he repeated this feat by an even larger margin. Why? Because President Trump has been a voice for hardworking Americans, who have been too often left behind, by standing up to our international adversaries like China, lowering the tax burden on families and small businesses, and returning pride to our nation.”