The $895 million gamble

Between March 1 and May 19, 895 ships crossed the passage between the Strait of Hormuz, according to maritime data company Kpler. however, many more are believed to be using shadow fleet tactics to bypass the strait and avoid detection.

Shipping analytics firm Vortexa reports that the number of ships going dark and avoiding detection has increased to 65% in May.

The ships are essentially switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) before and after transiting the strait, a technique used by Iran's shadow fleet to transport sanctioned oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's shadow fleet template

Iran-linked vessels helped establish the template before and during the early phase of the crisis. Non-sanctioned Gulf tonnage is now increasingly using similar methods - and, in volume terms, beginning to dominate them, the firm added.

Given the nature of going dark, it remains unclear exactly which routes the oil tankers are using to bypass trouble in the Strait of Hormuz.

Vessels linked with Iran, China, India, Pakistan and Japan have made use of this to get their cargo ships out, with Iran claiming dozens of ships were transiting through strait under their supervision in recent days.

The US Navy's role

Others have instead opted on taking routes closer to Oman's coastline, with the US Navy likely supporting those ships as Central Command recently touted helping around 70 ships cross in the last three weeks.

Ships coming out of Iranian ports, however, face the risk of interception from the American blockade along the Gulf of Oman, with US Central Command intercepting 133 ships as of Thursday.

A low oil output

Despite the apparent increase in ships trying to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz, the level of oil coming out of the Middle East remains low, with larger drops seen in recent weeks.

The average loss of oil within the first month of the conflict peaked at around 500,000 barrels per day, but starting in May, the depletion rate ramped up to 710,000 bpd,according to Reuters.