A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become a lasting strategic advantage for Iran, introducing a permanent geopolitical risk premium into oil markets and reshaping global supply chains.

The $10 to $20 premium per barrel

Energy consultancy Rystad estimates a persistent geopolitical risk premium of $10 to $20 per barrel, meaning the era of $60 oil is over for the foreseeable future, potentially lasting through 2027 and beyond .

This new reality will have far-reaching economic consequences, including the potential for higher energy prices and a shift in global supply chains.

A permanent vulnerability

The world faces a new reality where energy security is permanently compromised,and Iran holds a potent strategic card that will shape global economic and geopolitical dynamics for years to come, regardless of the outcome of any current ceasefire or deal .

Major oil traders and shipping companies are reportedly already making arrangements with Iran to secure passage, a desperate measure to repleinsh rapidly depleting global stockpiles.

Alternative export routes

In response to this permanent vulnerability, major Gulf producers are accelerating investments in alternative export routes to bypass the strait.

Saudi Arabia uses the East-West pipeline, while the UAE employs the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

However, these alternatives have limited capacity and cannot fully replace the massive daily throughput of the Strait of Hormuz.

What auditors flagged in the May filing

Analysts warn that the mere institutionalization of Iranian control, through bodies like the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority, undermines the previous assumption of unfettered access .

The economic consequences extend far beyond the price of crude, with goods ranging from fertilizer and jet fuel to helium and aluminum relying on stable energy markets and secure shipping lanes.