Since the initiation of military action by the United States and Israel on February 28, the Trump administration has asserted near-total neutralization of Iran's military capabilities. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared last week that "never in recorded history has a nation’s military been so quickly and so effectively neutralized."

Persistent Resistance After Major Assaults

However, over a month into intense U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iran continues to act as a determined adversary. The Islamic Republic maintains a steady output of retaliatory strikes targeting Israel and neighboring Gulf Arab nations.

Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center specializing in U.S. military strategy, noted Iran's objective: "Their strategy is to try to cause sustained pain and to drive up the costs of the war for the U.S."

Evidence of Diminished Firepower vs. Strategic Shift

Officials from both the U.S. and Israel frequently cite a significant reduction in Iran's ballistic missile launches as evidence that efforts to destroy stockpiles and launchers are succeeding. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine reported on March 4 that ballistic missile shots were down 86% from the initial day of conflict.

Two weeks later, Hegseth stated the volume of ballistic missile attacks had dropped "90% since the start of the conflict." On Tuesday, Hegseth confirmed Iran fired its "lowest number" of missiles and drones in the preceding 24 hours, though updated percentages were not provided. President Trump echoed this sentiment on Truth Social, claiming Iran has been "essentially, decimated."

Independent data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) supports claims of a slowdown. On the second day of the war, Iran executed nearly 100 strikes, which dropped to 53 the following day and remained near that level for several days.

ACLED data covering the subsequent three and a half weeks shows Iran has not exceeded 50 strikes on any single day. For the last three weeks, the average has settled around 30 daily strikes, though the tempo has occasionally increased.

Questioning Capacity Versus Intent

This initial decline prompts questions regarding the root cause. Grieco commented on the strike rate reduction, stating, "That makes me question whether it’s a capacity issue or a strategy issue." This suggests Iran might be deliberately rationing its drone and missile usage rather than being depleted.

Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, highlighted the cost to the U.S. and Israel. "We are vaporizing billions of dollars in long-range anti-missile defenses, which are scarce national resources," he stated.

Karako warned that the U.S. and Israel risk exhausting their interceptors before eliminating all of Iran's mobile launchers and missile stockpiles, an objective he called "maddeningly difficult."

Underestimating Iranian Hardening and Tactics

Trump administration officials continue to use the first 72 hours as the benchmark for assessing Iran's crippled status. Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iranian missiles at The Washington Institute, suggests this overlooks Iranian preparation.

Nadimi explained that "A good percentage of Iranian missiles, at least half of the arsenal, is stored in very hardened facilities that are not easily reachable with air power." He concluded that the U.S. and Israel appear to have underestimated the complexity involved.

Contrary to Hegseth's description of Iranians "flailing recklessly" by hitting energy infrastructure across the Arabian Peninsula, analysts observe refined targeting. Nadimi noted, "They have been able to strike targets more efficiently and therefore use fewer missiles to achieve the same result."

Iran's Economic Coercion Strategy

Iran has focused strikes across the Persian Gulf, heavily impacting neighbors like Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, aiming to force a settlement with the U.S. Last week, Iran targeted a Saudi air base with drones and ballistic missiles, resulting in injuries to over two dozen U.S. troops and aircraft damage.

Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general and researcher at INSS, believes Iran's primary goal is economic pressure. "In this asymmetrical war, the most important thing for Iran is attack the world economy in hopes of coercing the U.S. to stop," Orion stated.

Orion added that this economic focus has superseded direct attacks on Israel, which views the conflict as existential and is unlikely to be deterred. While the sustainability of Iran's current retaliation level is uncertain due to limited intelligence on its remaining inventory, experts agree on one point.

Karako concluded that Iran is equipped for a prolonged conflict: "Iran built itself to be able to ride a war like this out. It has been preparing for this." Military experts believe Iran likely retains thousands of locally manufactured drones capable of menacing U.S. allies, even if midrange ballistic missile capacity is reduced.