The $30 billion heatwave gamble

Europe is bracing for a sweltering heatwave this summer, with temperatures expected to reach up to 45°C in Spain, Portugal, and France. the heatwave is expected to arrive as quickly as next week, with peak temperatures still undetermined.

Scientists say human-drievn climate change is amplifying extremes,with weather evnts like heatwaves, droughts, and floods becoming more intense and frequent.

The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) forecasts that Spain is entering a three-month period of above-average temperatures across the entire country, including the Balearic Islands, the Mediterranean and Cantabrian coasts, the central and southwestern regions, and the Canary Islands .

Portugal can also expect a season of 'unbearable heat', with highs of up to 45°C. Usually, the months of June to September range between 25°C and 30°C, but forecasters insist this summer will be significantly warmer.

Human cost of the heatwave

Spain recorded 101 heat-related deaths in May, the highest number for the month since such records started being kept in 2015.

'This figure is 3.6 times higher than the average number of heat-related deaths recorded in May over the past decade,' the health ministry said in a statement, stressing 'the significant health impact of heat episodes,even before the start of summer.'

Overall, from 2015, when data collection began, up to the summer of 2025, the deaths of 27,564 people were 'attributable to high temperatures' in the country, the ministry said.

El Niño's role in the heatwave

The United Nations weather agency forecast on Tuesday a moderate or possibly a strong El Niño that could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months , according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

The WMO said warm ocean waters were driving El Niño's development and predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August.

The WMO said it is likely El Niño will continue until November.