The 80% Chance of Summer Disruptions

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted an 80% chance of El Niño occurring from June to August, which could lead to travel disruptions and flight delays.

The powerful climate phenomenon could also cause above-average temperatures, heavy rainfall, and droughts in various parts of the world.

As Super El Niño swiftly approaches, holidaymakers should brace for their summer trips to be impacted, as flights and trains are likely to be cancelled.

A Global Heatwave on the Horizon

Scientists from the WMO predict it could arrive this summer - with an 80% chance of it happening from June to August.

Scientists also indicate a 90% likelihood of it continuing until at least November.

Above average temperatures are forecast for 'nearly everywhere' during this time and there's a chance 2026 will be the hottest on record.

Travel Disruptions and Floods Ahead

El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.

Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed, said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) predicts there is an 80% chance of the weather event happening during June to August.

Heatwaves, Droughts, and Flooding: The El Niño Impact

There is already some uncertainty over travel this summer with the ongoing jet fuel situation which has continued since the start of the Iran war earlier this year - causing many airlines to increase prices and even cancel flights .

But, El Niño could impact plans too.

The last time the weather event occurred was between 2023 and 2024, when the world was hit by record-breaking temperatures .

This time, it could cause a similar heatwave, drought, as well as heavy rainfall.

Preparing for the Worst:Train Travel and El Niño

Network Rail has guidance on how it navigates hot weather on the railway and explains how, hot summers can be as challenging as freezing winters for trains.

The rails, overhead power lines and the track ground can all be impacted by high temperatures.

Overhead lines can expand and sag in heat which can mean trains much travel more slowly to avoid causing damage .

If the overhead lines are damaged, we have to cancel or divert train services until they are fixed.

This causes delays, Network Rail outlines.

Newer lines are less affected, but older ones are more vulnerable to the heat.

Hot weather can also cause rails to buckle.

But when this happens, trains are stopped.

If there is no room for the rail to expand, the rail can buckle and we need to close the line to fix it before trains can run again.

When we stop trains or close a line, this causes delyas, Network Rail says.

Drought can affect the ground underneath the railway tracks too, meaning trains have to slow down to travel safely over any cracks.

Signalling system failures can be triggered by excessive internal temperatures inside signalling cabinets exceeding 70°C.