Economists Forecast Lingering Inflation and Moderate Job Growth A Bankrate survey of economists reveals expectations for continued elevated inflation and a slight slowdown in job growth, with no return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target until at least next year. Despite concerns about the economy's impact on individual households, economists maintain a view of overall U.S. economic resilience. A recent survey of economists by Bankrate indicates a prevailing sentiment of cautious optimism regarding the U.S. economy. While economists anticipate job growth and unemployment figures to be slightly worse than previously forecast, they also foresee a modest decline in mortgage rates and Treasury yields. A significant takeaway is the widespread belief that inflation will not return to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% until at least the following year, with nearly half of respondents not expecting this benchmark to be reached before 2028. Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate, highlighted that despite many Americans feeling the economy is not working well for them, the survey results did not reveal any dire economic warnings. He characterized the collective opinion as a reflection of a remarkably resilient U.S. economy, emphasizing that the forecast of 'higher for longer' interest rates and inflation is a confident prediction, as these two factors are intrinsically linked. The survey also revealed a considerable divergence in predictions for the labor market, underscoring a degree of uncertainty. On average, economists expect monthly job growth to average around 41,000, a decrease from the previous quarter's projection of 64,000. However, the range of forecasts was broad, spanning from monthly job contractions to growth exceeding 100,000 positions per month. Similarly, the average forecast for the unemployment rate a year from now stands at 4.6%, an upward revision from the previous quarter's consensus of 4.5%, with individual predictions varying between 4.2% and 5%. Hamrick further elaborated on the concept of a K-shaped economy, where inflation disproportionately impacts lower-income individuals while higher-income households experience less hardship. He likened this to the difference between first-class and economy seating on an airplane, suggesting that those who can afford higher prices are not feeling the economic pinch as acutely as the average American. While acknowledging that the economy is not in a state of depression and that macroeconomic data is not overwhelmingly negative, Hamrick agreed that individuals are justified in describing their personal economic experience as suboptimal. The likelihood of a recession within the next year, as estimated by the surveyed economists, is 34%. This figure represents an increase from the previous quarter's 28% but remains lower than the average recession odds observed over the past four years. This suggests that while a recession is a recognized risk, it is not considered the most probable outcome. The survey's findings are particularly relevant in the context of broader economic concerns, including housing market affordability challenges and the persistent impact of inflation on household budgets. The economists' consensus points to a period of prolonged adjustment, where interest rates and inflation remain elevated, and job market growth moderates. This outlook suggests that consumers should brace for continued economic uncertainty, albeit within a framework of overall economic resilience.