Is California poised to elect a Republican governor? While unlikely, the possibility is causing anxiety among Democrats as the June primary approaches. The state’s unique ‘jungle’ primary system, where all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation, increases the potential for a surprising outcome.

The 'Jungle' Primary and Democratic Concerns

California’s primary system allows the top two vote-getters to advance to the November runoff. With a crowded field of Democratic candidates, there’s a genuine risk of splitting the vote, potentially allowing the leading Republican contenders – Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton – to secure both spots.

According to simulations developed by political analyst Paul Mitchell, the odds of a Democratic “freeze-out” currently stand at around 17% to 20%. While not probable, this percentage is significant enough to cause concern within the Democratic party.

Why Aren't Democrats Uniting?

The question arises: why don’t some Democratic candidates withdraw to consolidate support? Each candidate has invested significant effort and maintains faith in their chances of success. Dropping out requires acknowledging a lack of confidence in both their abilities and potential for good fortune.

The Lack of a Political Machine

Unlike historical political landscapes with powerful “bosses,” modern California lacks a centralized authority capable of dictating candidate withdrawals. Past figures like the Burton and Berman brothers wielded influence, but their power was largely confined to specific areas and levels of government.

Today’s political environment, characterized by online fundraising and media appearances, further diminishes the influence of traditional party structures.

Gavin Newsom's Limited Options

Current Governor Gavin Newsom could attempt to influence the Democratic field, but doing so carries risks. Intervening could be perceived as embarrassing if Republicans ultimately win, or if his efforts to persuade candidates to drop out fail.

Newsom’s limited relationships with the candidates and the lack of significant incentives he can offer further complicate the situation. He must also consider the optics of potentially sidelining prominent candidates of color, including Xavier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, Betty Yee, and Tony Thurmond.

Potential Democratic Responses

If Democrats are excluded from the November runoff, their options are limited. California law prohibits write-in candidates in the general election, and running as an independent is also not permitted.

Democrats’ best hope lies in voter consolidation around a single candidate or a scenario where Bianco or Hilton garner enough Republican support to leave room for a Democrat to advance. Alternatively, a Democratic-led recall campaign could be initiated in early 2027.