San Diego County's housing market is showing a sharp split, according to a new analysis from Reports on Housing. Pending sales for homes over $2 million hit a record 232 in the latest period,while properties priced at $750,000 or less are taking longer to sell despite a 13% increase in inventory. The divergence reflects what analysts call a K-shaped economic recovery, where affluent buyers benefit from stock market gains while lower-income households struggle with affordability.

232 pending luxury sales — a record that beats March 2022's high

The luxury segment is experiencing a surge not seen in years. Reports on Housing data shows 232 pending sales for homes listed above $2 million, surpassing the previous record of 225 set in March 2022. This marks a dramatic increase from just 74 such pending sales when tracking began in March 2019. The velocity of these high-end transactions has accelreated, with homes between $2 million and $4 million now selling in an average of 87 days — down from 133 days a year ago.

A 46-day drop for the $2M–$4M tier — and even steeper for $4M+

The time-on-market compression is most dramatic at the top. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the average selling period fell from 308 days to 178 days, according to Reports on Housing. Properties exceeding $6 million now move in 379 days versus 633 days a year prior. Real estate analyst Steven Thomas, who compiled the data, told the source publication that high-net-worth individuals are diversifying into real estate after substantial stock market gains, and that San Diego still offers relative value compared to Orange or Los Angeles counties.

Why the $750,000-and-under pool sits 2,037 homes deep

The entry-level market tells a different story. There were 2,037 homes for sale at $750,000 and below in May, up from 1,805 the previous year. Yet these properties are taking 97 days to sell, compared to 86 days a year ago. The increased inventory is not translating into faster sales — a sign of demand exhaustion among first-time and move-up buyers facing higher borrowing costs. By contrast, the $2 million to $4 million segment saw inventory shrink from 688 to 550 listings over the same period.

Craig Lotzof's La Jolla deal and the cross-border wealth flow

Real estate agent Craig Lotzof, who sold a La Jolla mansion for $14.5 million in March, told the source that many high-net-worth individuals are relocating to San Diego from Mexico, seeking stability near the border. he also cited affluent former residents returning to the area. Two recent sales underscore the trend: a mansion at 1063 Ocean Blvd in Coronado went for $28 million in May, and a newly built 6,315-square-foot home at 6283 La Jolla Scenic Drive fetched $17 million. These top-tier transactions are happening even as the county's overall median home price remains flat, unchanged from March of last year.

What remains unknown about the K-shaped floor

The source report leaves several questions open. It is unclear how long the luxury surge can continue if stock markets correct or if interest rates stay elevated. The data does not reveal how much of the luxury buying is cash versus financed — a critical distinction for sustainability. Additionally,the report's reliance on pending sales, rather than closed transactions, means some deals may fall through. The K-shaped recovery in San Diego housing appears real, but its durability is unproven.