Leading polling expert Sir John Curtice predicts substantial gains for Reform UK and the Green Party in the upcoming local elections, potentially causing lasting damage to the Labour and Conservative parties.

Potential for Political Realignment

Curtice’s analysis, presented in an Ipsos briefing, suggests these gains could establish crucial activist bases for Reform UK and the Green Party. This could fundamentally alter the political landscape of the United Kingdom.

Hindered Rebuilding Efforts

He warns that anticipated losses for both Labour and the Conservatives will severely hinder their ability to regain lost ground. This would create a more fragmented and competitive political environment.

Long-Term Challenge to Established Parties

The core of Curtice’s assessment is the potential for Reform UK and the Green Party to move from being seen as ‘short-term bubbles’ to representing a ‘long-term challenge’ to the established parties.

Building Grassroots Support

He emphasizes that cultivating robust local organizations and dedicated activist networks is key to this transition. The parties’ success in fielding candidates – Reform in 99.9% of wards and the Greens in 90% – demonstrates a growing capacity to mobilize support.

Lessons from the Liberal Democrats

Curtice draws a parallel to the Liberal Democrats’ experience after their 2015 defeat. Their survival depended on maintaining a committed core of local activists during a period of decline.

The Importance of Local Organization

The Liberal Democrats leveraged this infrastructure to achieve gains in the 2024 general election, demonstrating the enduring value of local organization.

Potential for Scottish Independence

Curtice also points to the potential for a pro-independence majority in Scotland to create a pivotal moment in 2029. A deal between Labour and the Scottish National Party (SNP) could become likely if Labour needs to form a coalition.

Path to Dissolution

With support for Scottish independence currently around 50%, a further increase coupled with political necessity could pave the way for a referendum and potentially the break-up of the United Kingdom.

Significant Losses Expected

Curtice anticipates a ‘difficult’ election for both major parties, predicting substantial seat losses and shifts in council control. He describes the expected outcome as a loss of a ‘barrel load’ of seats for both Labour and the Conservatives.

The overall picture is one of profound political upheaval, where the established order is under serious threat and the future of British politics is uncertain. These local elections could be a catalyst for a fundamental realignment of political forces.