Keir Starmer is facing mounting pressure within the Labour Party, with Andy Burnham increasingly viewed as a potential successor. This comes amid fears of significant losses in upcoming local elections and ongoing fallout from the appointment of Peter Mandelson.

Growing Discontent Within Labour

Despite a public commitment from the Prime Minister’s spokesperson to remain in office into the 2030s, a growing sense of discontent is brewing among Labour MPs and within the Cabinet. The Peter Mandelson appointment scandal is a major contributing factor to this shift in mood.

Electoral Challenges and Rising Rivals

The upcoming English council elections, along with parliamentary votes in Scotland and Wales, are seen as a critical juncture for the party. Reform UK is poised to gain ground in traditionally Labour-held areas, and the Green Party may achieve a breakthrough in London. Some within the party have described the current situation as a “sh**show.”

Burnham's Ambitions and Potential Bid

While Sir Keir has benefited from a lack of readily available alternative leadership candidates, a poor electoral performance could compel him to establish a timeline for his departure. Andy Burnham, previously prevented by the Labour NEC from contesting a by-election, has signaled his continued ambition to return to the House of Commons.

Joint Leadership Possibility

Recent meetings between Burnham and Angela Rayner have fueled speculation about a potential joint leadership bid. Burnham is expected to actively campaign during the London local elections. Sources suggest that allowing Burnham’s return to Parliament could be a condition for Sir Keir’s continued leadership.

Conservative Response and Ongoing Investigations

The Conservative party is preparing to launch a probe into whether the Prime Minister misled Parliament regarding Peter Mandelson’s vetting process. Sir Keir’s former chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, has denied allegations of pressuring civil servants regarding the appointment and is scheduled to appear before MPs next week.

Internal Dissent and Leadership Concerns

Internal dissent within the Cabinet is also evident, with ministers offering only tepid public support and privately criticizing recent decisions. Some senior Labour figures express reservations about Burnham’s prospects, citing his lack of a parliamentary seat and doubts about his ability to win a by-election.