A major new poll reveals a dramatic shift in British politics, with Reform UK projected to win the most seats but no party expected to achieve a majority.

Political Fragmentation

The findings, conducted by Electoral Calculus for PLMR and based on Find Out Now surveys, suggest a potential need for an alliance between Reform UK and the Conservatives, or a highly unstable coalition of multiple left-leaning parties, to form a government. The research paints a picture of a deeply divided electorate.

Projected Seat Distribution

Reform UK is forecast to emerge as the largest party with 188 MPs, followed by the Conservatives with 159. Labour is predicted to experience a significant decline, plummeting from over 400 seats to 86.

Gains for Smaller Parties

The Green Party is predicted to win 71 constituencies, including traditionally Labour strongholds in London, even potentially threatening the seat of Labour leader Keir Starmer. The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 61 seats, the Scottish National Party 44, and Plaid Cymru 17.

Challenges to Government Formation

Despite potential support from independent MPs and parties in Northern Ireland, assembling a functioning majority would prove challenging. The research anticipates intense negotiations and the potential for smaller parties to leverage their influence.

Methodology and Recent Trends

The poll utilized 'MRP,' mapping poll data onto constituency demographics and factoring in tactical voting. The survey, conducted between March 27th and April 7th with a sample of 5,559 individuals, initially showed Reform UK at 24% national support, which has since decreased.

Shifting Support

The Conservatives have seen a modest recovery to 21%, while Labour’s support stands at 17%. Kevin Craig, head of PLMR, emphasized that Reform UK lacks the complete trust of the electorate and is experiencing slowing momentum.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, observed that Reform UK’s popularity has waned since early 2024. Nigel Farage faces the challenge of retaining voters and addressing the emergence of alternative right-wing parties like Restore Britain. Baxter warned that further fragmentation on the right could mirror the challenges Labour has faced on the left.