New research suggests a dramatically fragmented British political landscape, potentially requiring an alliance between Reform UK and the Conservative Party to form a governing coalition. The projections, based on current polling data, indicate no single party is likely to secure a majority in the House of Commons.

Political Landscape in Flux

The research, conducted by Electoral Calculus for PLMR and utilizing Find Out Now surveys, paints a picture of unprecedented political instability if a general election were held immediately. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is currently projected to win 188 seats.

Labour's Projected Collapse

The Conservative Party, under Kemi Badenoch, is close behind with 159 projected seats. This represents a significant setback for the Labour Party, which is forecast to be reduced to just 86 MPs – a substantial decline from their current representation. The Green Party is predicted to make substantial gains, securing 71 constituencies.

Gains for Smaller Parties

The Liberal Democrats are expected to gain 61 seats, the Scottish National Party 44, and Plaid Cymru 17. Even combining these figures with independent MPs and parties from Northern Ireland, forming a stable majority government appears improbable, requiring 326 seats out of 650.

Methodology and Data

The research employs the ‘MRP’ (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) technique, mapping poll data onto constituency demographics and factoring in tactical voting. The polling data, collected from 5,559 individuals between March 27th and April 7th, shows Reform UK currently enjoying 24% national support.

Shifting Support

This is a decrease from their peak earlier in the year, when projections indicated they could win up to 335 seats in January. The Conservatives have seen a modest recovery to 21%, while Labour’s support has fallen to 17%.

Expert Analysis

Kevin Craig, head of PLMR, emphasized that despite Reform UK’s current lead, the party lacks the overall trust of the electorate. He noted that Reform’s momentum appears to be slowing, suggesting a more competitive election environment and a likely hung parliament, stating the election is currently ‘all up for grabs’.

Voter Awareness and Policy Impact

PLMR’s polling also revealed a concerning lack of public awareness regarding local council leadership, with fewer than half of voters able to correctly identify who is in charge. Craig stressed the importance of the government rebuilding its connection with voters by demonstrating the tangible impact of national and local policies.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, observed that while Reform UK remains the largest party, its popularity has decreased since its peak in 2024. Baxter warned that increased fragmentation on the right could create similar challenges for Reform UK as those Labour has faced due to vote splitting on the left.