Republican Senator Susan Collins is facing intense scrutiny in her Maine reelection campaign over her 2018 decision to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Democrats are leveraging this vote to argue that Collins lacks true independence from the Trump administration.
The Dobbs decision turns a 2018 vote into a 2024 liability
The overturning of Roe v. Wade via the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling has fundamentally changed the political math for Senator Susan Collins. While she argued during the 2018 confirmation process that Justice Brett Kavanaugh would respect legal precedent, the subsequent decision to dismantle national abortion rights has given her opponents a potent weapon. As Newsweek reported, this outcome has made the Kavanaugh vote significantly more salient in the current election cycle than it was during her previous reelection attempt.
This shift echoes the tension seen during the 2016 judicial vacancy, when Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell refused to confirm a nominee before the election. In 2018, the debate centered on whether a justice should be confirmed so close to midterms, but the 2024 race is now defined by the actual judicial outcomes that Collins' supporters once suggested were unlikely.
Why the 9-point Biden margin in 2020 didn't stop Collins
In the 2020 election,Susan Collins managed to defeat Democrat Sara Gideon despite Joe Biden carrying the state of Maine by 9 percentage points. This victory served as a major show of strength, suggesting that Collins could maintain her seat even in a political environment trending toward the Democratic Party. At the time, millions of dollars were raised by opponents to unseat her, yet she successfully outran the backlash regarding her ties to the Trump administration.
However, the current contest against Troy Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, tests whether that resilience can hold when reproductive rights are the primary driver of voter turnout. The ability of a Republican to win in a state where Donald Trump remains unpopular is being tested once again by the specific consequences of the Kavanaugh confirmation.
Troy Jackson's challenge to Collins' pro-choice credentials
Democrat Troy Jackson has centered his campaign on the argument that Collins is less independent than she claims to be. While Collins maintains she has always been a pro-choice Republican, Jackson has countered by highlighting his own evolution from a relatively pro-life stance early in his career to becoming a staunchly pro-choice leader. According to the Newsweek report,Jackson has utilized advertisements featuring women to reinforce his pro-choice bona fides to the Maine electorate.
During recent debates, Collins defended her record by citing the importance of judicial qualifications over predicted outcomes. She referenced the philosophy of the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, noting that it would be inappropriate for a judge to predict how they might vote on specific issues. Collins continues to assert that she disagrees with how Kavanaugh voted but maintains that his qualifications made him fit for the High Court.
Will Maine voters forgive the 2018 Kavanaugh confirmation?
Several critical questions remain regarding the final outcome of this Maine Senate race. While political science professors at the University of Maine suggest the vote is a major factor, it remains unverified whether the specific segment of pro-choice voters who previously supported Collins will actually defect to Jackson this time. Additionally, while Democrats have launched an aggressive advertising campaign targeting Collins' record,the direct impact of these ads on undecided voters in Maine remains an open question. The campaign has not yet provided a definitive response to how the shift in the legal landscape since 2018 will ultimately influence the balance of power in the Senate.
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