A comprehensive AP-NORC polling analysis spanning July 2024 to April 2026 reveals that President Donald Trump's favorability among independent voters has steadily declined during his second term, with the sharpest drop among those without a college degree. The gap between college-educated and non-college independents has all but disappeared,according to the report co-authored by NORC researchers Tafari Torres and Sean Collins, which aggregates nearly two dozen polls. This shift, tied to events including the government shutdown and early Iran war, erases an advantage that helped Trump win the 2024 election.

From 48% to 25%: The Collapse Among Non-College Independents

According to the AP-NORC analysis , the proportion of independent voters without a college degree who viewed Trump favorably fell from 48% around the 2024 election to roughly one-quarter by spring 2026. This 23-point drop erased what had been a significant education-based split among independents. NORC co-author Sean Collins noted the decline was both steeper and greater than among college-educated independents, which was surprising given that non-college voters are typically a core part of Trump's coalition.

The broader context: Trump's base has long included Americans without college degrees, and his 2024 victory was partly powered by independents who saw him as stronger on the economy. The rapid erosion suggests these voters are reacting to his actual performance in office — and not favorably, as reported by AP-NORC.

How the Government Shutdown and Iran War Accelerated the Decline

The analysis aggregates polls across specific periods: the first 100 days, the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill in summer 2025, the government shutdown last fall, and the early stages of the Iran war. Each event coincided with further drops among independents. Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, pointed out that while Democratic and Republican views stayed steady, independents continued to react to events. This event-driven pattern suggests the decline may not be linear but tied to specific presidential actions.

Hispanic Independents: From a 46% High to a 15% Low

One of the most dramatic shifts occurred among Hispanic independents. according to the AP-NORC data, 46% viewed Trump favorably around the 2024 election — a group that had moved toward him. That support plummeted to a low of 15% during the government shutdown before stabilizing around one-quarter in spring 2026. This rapid loss among a key demographic that helped Trump expand his coalition in 2024 could pose a structural challenge for Republicans heading into midterms.

Can the GOP Rebuild Before the Midterms?

With independent support falling across education levels and key demographics, the AP-NORC analysis raises a specific open question: what will it take for Trump to regain lost ground, or can Republicans win without these voters? The report notes that about 42% of independents supported Trump in 2024, up from 37% in 2020, meaning the GOP gained ground with this group — and now risks losing it. The upcoming midterm elections, often a referendum on the governing party, will test whether the erosion is temporary or a lasting realignment.

One unanswered point from the source: the analysis does not provide reasons from the voters themselves — only the polling data. Without qualitative insight, it is unclear whether the drop is driven by specific policies (e.g., the Iran war) or a general disillusionment. Additionally, the report aggregates polls, so individual poll margins of error are not discussed.