New analysis of AP‑NORC polls from July 2024 through April 2026 shows President Donald Trump’s favorability among independent voters has fallen sharply, with non‑college‑educated independents dropping from roughly half support to about 25% by spring 2026. The erosion spans key sub‑groups, including Hispanic and younger independents , and threatens Republican prospects ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Non‑college independents tumble from 48% to 25% after the 2024 election

According to the AP‑NORC report, about 48% of independents without a college degree viewed Trump favorably in the months preceding his 2024 inauguration. That share slid to 31% during his first 100 days and sank to roughly one‑quarter during the government shutdown and early 2026. The decline erased the education gap that previously gave Trump a solid foothold among non‑college voters.

Hispanic independents plunge from 46% to 15% during the shutdown

Data compiled by NORC shows that nearly half of Hispanic independents (46%) rated Trump positively around the 2024 election, but support collapsed to as low as 15% amid the fall shutdown before rebounding modestly to about 25% by spring. This swing mirrors broader dissatisfaction among minority independents who had briefly leaned toward Trump.

Younger independents join the decline while seniors stay steady

The analysis notes that independents under 40 years old also reduced their favorable views of Trump, though exact percentages are not broken out. in contrast, voters aged 60 and older displayed relatively stable opinions, suggesting age‑based resilience in the former president’s base.

Economic frustration cited as a driver of the shift

AP‑NORC polls repeatedly point to the economy as a central source of frustration for independents,with inflation and job concerns cited as reasons for the waning support. Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, said, "From our research, they don’t appear to be permanent gains," emphasizing that the economic narrative is reshaping independent attitudes.

Who remains undecided? Gaps in the data on future swing

While the report tracks favorability and job approval, it does not reveal how many independents are truly undecided or leaning toward a third‑party option. Moreover, the analysis stops short of quantifying how much the remaining 25% of non‑college independents might still be swayed by upcoming policy moves.

Overall, the AP‑NORC findings suggest that the independent bloc, long considered the bellwether for midterm outcomes, is moving away from Trump at a pace that could reshape the 2026 electoral map.