A new YouGov poll indicates significant losses for Labour in the upcoming London local elections, with the Green Party and Reform UK poised for major gains. The results suggest Labour is on course for its worst London result in 50 years.

Labour's Declining Support

Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is facing potentially significant losses in the upcoming London local elections, according to the recent YouGov poll. The research indicates a major breakthrough for both the Green Party and Reform UK, challenging Labour’s long-held dominance in the capital.

Green and Reform UK Gains

The poll projects the Greens to achieve the highest vote share in four London boroughs – Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham, and Waltham Forest – all traditionally Labour strongholds. Reform UK is predicted to lead in three boroughs: Barking and Dagenham, Bromley, and Havering.

Worst Result in 50 Years?

This model, based on extensive voter polling, suggests Labour is on track for its worst London result in half a century, potentially winning the highest vote share in only 15 councils, a decrease of six compared to 2022.

Fragmented Political Landscape

The political landscape appears increasingly fragmented, with all five major English parties – Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Reform – expected to secure double-digit vote shares. While Labour is still projected to top the London ballot, their support is predicted to fall to around 26%, a substantial 16-percentage-point drop since the 2022 elections.

Shifting Vote Shares

The Conservatives are also expected to see a decline, dropping nine points to 17%. The Greens are poised to benefit significantly, with a projected 22% vote share, a 10-point increase, and Reform UK is experiencing a surge from near zero to 14%.

Increased Volatility

YouGov’s head of elections, Patrick English, notes that this fragmentation means lower winning thresholds and increased volatility, where even small shifts in voting intention can dramatically alter outcomes.

Voter Intentions and Broader Elections

A separate Ipsos UK poll reveals that nearly half of London voters (49%) are considering voting Green on May 7th. The potential for significant change extends beyond London, with elections also scheduled for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd. The results of these elections, combined with the London local elections, are expected to reflect widespread voter dissatisfaction and a desire for alternative political options.

Potential Leadership Challenge

The Labour party, already under pressure due to internal issues, faces a challenging period ahead. Allies of Keir Starmer are bracing for a potential leadership challenge following the elections, particularly if the predicted losses materialize. The Ipsos UK poll highlights a growing appetite for ‘radical change’ and deep concerns about the cost of living, factors driving support for the Green Party.

The overall picture suggests a significant realignment of the political landscape, with traditional party loyalties weakening and voters increasingly open to supporting smaller, alternative parties. The ‘highly-fragmented picture’ painted by the YouGov research underscores the unpredictable nature of the upcoming elections and the potential for surprising results across the country.