Liberals Nearing Majority Government Amidst Shifting Alliances and By-Elections

The Liberal Party of Canada is on the cusp of securing a majority government, with the outcomes of three federal by-elections held today in Toronto and Quebec potentially tipping the scales. Voters in two traditional Liberal strongholds in Toronto are heading to the polls, alongside a riding in Quebec that is considered a toss-up between the Bloc and the Liberals. Victory in just one of these races would grant the federal Liberals the 172 seats required for a majority in the House of Commons. However, the party has already effectively manifested a majority government through a series of five extraordinary parliamentary floor crossings, regardless of the results in the closest race, the suburban seat north of Laval in Terrebonne.

The Liberal seat count has seen considerable fluctuation since the last general election, where they initially won 169 seats. Their numbers rose to 171 with the addition of Conservative MP Chris Dantremont and later Michael Ma. The count temporarily dropped back to 169 following the resignations of Cabinet Ministers Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair. A subsequent Supreme Court decision annulled a Liberal win in Terrebonne due to errors on mail-in ballot envelopes, reducing their total to 168. A series of floor-crossings, including Conservative MP Matt Jenneru, NDP MP Laurie Idlaut, and most recently, four-term Conservative MP Marilyn Gladue, have since brought the Liberal count to 171, placing them on the brink of a majority.

Industry Minister Melanie Jolie framed the ballot question for today as a decision about which party can offer stability in a time of instability. Political strategist Jamie Watt explained that securing a majority government would grant the Liberals greater control over parliamentary committees, enabling them to pass legislation more efficiently. "He’ll be able to appoint Liberals as a majority in all of those committees. And that’ll mean he’ll be able to get his legislation through much, much faster," Watt stated. He also suggested that Canadians might welcome the stability of a majority government, despite potential reductions in checks and balances. The defection of four MPs from the Conservative Party to the Liberals has raised significant questions about Pierre Poilievre's leadership.

Watt theorized that many of these floor-crossers were motivated by the prospect of being in government, having initially anticipated a Conservative victory when their party was more than 20 points ahead in the polls. "All of a sudden, the morning after Election Day, they woke up and said, oh my goodness, we're going to be sitting in the back bench, not being very influential... because we're going to be in the opposition," Watt noted. He believes this made them vulnerable to a "charm offensive" from Prime Minister Mark Carney and his team, offering them a chance to "be part of the team that's actually going to get stuff done." The Liberals are reportedly in talks with as many as nine other MPs about joining the government caucus, which would provide an insurance policy for a majority government, especially if this parliament continues for a few more years.

The influx of floor-crossers, particularly Marilyn Gladue whose voting record differs from many Liberal positions on social issues, presents a complication for the Liberal Party's broad tent approach. "For sure it's going to be complicated for the Liberals," Watt commented, noting that new defectors might be seen as overshadowing long-time party members. Prime Minister Carney's emphasis on pro-choice stances, for instance, could create internal friction for MPs like Gladue. Watt cautioned that while Carney, who has come from outside traditional Liberal politics, is riding high in the polls, accepting too many floor-crossers could cause problems for both him and Poilievre.

Regarding the timing of the next election, Watt believes the current government will serve its full mandate, stating, "I think anybody who triggers an election now is going to feel the wrath of the Canadian people." He anticipates Canadians want their elected officials to "be in Ottawa doing their job and doing their job until the end of the mandate," suggesting an election is unlikely before 2029. Government House Leader Stephen McKinnon is pushing back against the opposition claim that this is an undemocratic power grab, stating, "We think the times require and demand that we work with other parties on these solutions. We want to be a unifying government. We want to bring solutions that Canadians from all walks of life, from all regions, can adhere to."

The by-election in Scarborough Southwest, previously held by Liberal Bill Blair, is a long-time Liberal stronghold. Dolly Begum, the former Ontario NDP deputy leader, is running as the Liberal candidate. In University-Rosedale, a central downtown riding represented by Chrystia Freeland since 2013, Dr. Danielle Martin, a family physician, is running for the Liberals. The Bloc is hoping that voters in Terrebonne, a riding not held by the Liberals since the 1980s, can be persuaded to vote for the party that best represents Quebecers, especially since a majority government is now assured. The Bloc wants to counter the phenomenon seen in the spring election where some nationalist Quebecers temporarily supported Mark Carney, believing he was best positioned to confront the "51st state" threat of Donald Trump. The Liberals, conversely, aim to demonstrate momentum for their nation-building priorities, particularly if another provincial sovereignty referendum is on the horizon.

Prime Minister Carney stated in an interview that while securing a majority may not change the government's strategy, it will increase the speed at which policies can be implemented. The question remains whether moving faster will lead to fewer compromises and less scrutiny. The shift to a potential majority situation removes powerful tools from opposition hands; the Bloc will no longer have a swing vote on committees, and the NDP's influence in the House may diminish. Even Conservative MPs will lose the leverage of their swing votes.

Pope Leo and President Trump Exchange Barbs Over Policies and Peace

An extraordinary rift has emerged between Pope Leo and U.S. President Donald Trump, marked by direct criticism and personal rebukes. Speaking from a plane before embarking on a 10-day African tour, Pope Leo stated, “I do not look at my role as being a political politician. I don't want to get into a debate with him. I don't think that the message of the gospel is meant to be abused in the way that some people are doing.” He reaffirmed his commitment to advocating for peace, dialogue, and multilateral solutions to global conflicts, emphasizing, “Too many people are suffering in the world today. Too many innocent people are being killed. And I think someone has to stand up and say there's a better way to do this.”

Crystal Gamansing, reporting for CBC News, highlighted that while pontiffs have historically addressed the need for peace and civilian protection during conflicts like those in Afghanistan and Iraq, this situation is distinct because President Trump escalated the discourse to a personal level. “The specific difference in this case was the fact that U.S. President Donald Trump did make it personal when he specifically said that he isn't a fan of Pope Leo because of the comments that Pope Leo made about policies saying that civilians need to be protected,” Gamansing explained. Pope Leo had previously deemed President Trump’s remarks about destroying Iranian civilization “unacceptable,” focusing his critique on policy rather than personal attacks.

President Trump responded sharply to Pope Leo’s criticism, stating, “We don’t like a pope that’s going to say that it’s OK to have a nuclear weapon. We don’t want a pope that says crime is OK in our cities. I don't like it. I'm not a big fan of Pope Leo. He's a very liberal person, and he's a man that doesn’t believe in stopping crime.” The broadcast clarified that Pope Leo has not supported crime but has consistently promoted a message of peace rooted in Christianity, suggesting that some are misinterpreting or abusing this message. It was noted that there are 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide, and Pew Research data from 2025 indicated that 55% of Christian voters supported Donald Trump in 2024. The reaction from American Christian voters to the President's comments about Pope Leo has yet to be widely heard.

Other National and International News

Canada Reads, the annual literary competition focused on the theme “One Book to Build Bridges,” begins today on CBC Radio and CBC Jam. In the literary world, novelist Mia Ballard faces accusations of using artificial intelligence to write her novel *Shy Girl*, leading to its removal from shelves and sparking debate about AI's ethical implications in publishing.

Pop star Britney Spears has voluntarily entered a rehabilitation facility following an arrest last month on suspicion of driving under the influence. In sports, the Toronto Raptors have secured their fifth seed in the NBA playoffs, defeating the Brooklyn Nets 136-101. They are set to face the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best-of-seven series beginning Saturday.

CBC News is increasing its coverage of local news across Canada in response to concerns about the decline of local journalism and the rise of misinformation. Political strategist Jamie Watt emphasized the importance of choosing “news, not noise,” highlighting CBC's commitment to reporting from local communities.