On Thursday, voters in the Makerfield constituency went to the polls in a by‑ellection that has become a proxy battle over Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.. Labour’s Andy Burnham is aiming to retain the seat, but faces a divided opposition from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain.

Labour’s 49% Poll Lead Puts Burnham Ahead of Reform UK’s 39%

According to a recent poll cited by the source, Labour is ahead with 49% support, while Reform UK trails at 39% and Restore Britain at 8%. a Labour‑commissioned survey even suggests Restore could rise to 13%, potentially pulling right‑leaning votes from Reform and benefitting Labour.

Restore Britain’s Candidate Rebecca Shepherd Remains Invisible on the Ground

The source notes that Restore’s candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, has been absent from public events and media, relying instead on social‑media clips amplified by Elon Musk. This lack of visibility contrasts sharply with Farage’s active campaigning, including rallies and televised interviews.

Farage’s Tax‑Simplification Pitch vs. Lowe’s Accusations of Political Assassination

Nigel Farage has focused his message on simplifying taxes and raising VAT thresholds, dismissing Restore’s impact as “soft” and rooted in former BNP support. in response, Rupert Lowe has accused Farage of “political assassination” and promised a strong street presence before polling day, highlighting the personal animosity between the two right‑wing leaders.

Betting Odds Favor Labour, but Right‑Wing Unity Remains Uncertain

Current betting markets, as reported by the source, place Labour as the favorite to win the seat. However, the final result hinges on whether Reform UK and Restore Britain can consolidate their votes or remain fragmented, which would likely hand the constituency to Burnham and reinforce Starmer’s parliamentary majority.

Who Will Consolidate the Right‑Wing Vote?

The source leaves open the question of whether any candidate can attract the scattered right‑leaning electorate. With Restore’s minimal on‑the‑ground presence and Farage’s aggressive campaigning, the answer remains uncertain.