Jordan Bardella, the 30‑year‑old head of France’s National Rally, surged to a record 47% approval rating in a poll conducted May 31‑June 2, following a wave of riots sparked by the Champions League final. The surge places him ahead of all other presidential hopefuls, including his mentor Marine Le Pen,who trails at 40%.

47% Approval Marks Bardello’s Highest Rating Since the May Riots

The survey, released by an unnamed polling firm, recorded a six‑point jump for Bardella compared with the previous month. According to the poll, 47% of respondents now view the RN leader favorably, a figure that eclipses the next‑closest contender, Le Havre mayor Edouard Philippe,at 29%.

Marine Le Pen’s 40% Rating Complicated by Five‑Year Election Ban

Marine Le Pen, who has been barred from running in any European election for five years over a contested conviction , registered a 40% approval rating in the same poll. As the report notes, the ban could be the first time a Le Pen has been absent from a French presidential ballot since 1981. This legal obstacle may force the party to rely on Bardella as its primary electoral vehicle.

Riots and Law‑and‑Order Messaging Fuel Bardella’s Surge

The unrest in Seine‑Saint‑Denis and other suburbs after Paris Saint‑Germain’s victory appears to have sharpened public appetite for a tougher stance on security. Bardella has linked the disturbances to “mass migration” policies, a narrative that resonated with voters seeking a sterner alternative to President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal approach.

Potential Joint Ticket: Bardella as President, Le Pen as Prime Minister?

While Le Pen has hinted she would name Bardella as her prime minister if she won in 2027, analysts suggest the reverse could happen: Bardella could become president and appoint Le Pen to the premiership, sidestepping her candidacy ban. The poll’s findings give the RN a strategic advantage in any such arrangement, as both figures enjoy double‑digit approval .

Open Questions: Will the Ban Hold and Can the RN Consolidate Opposition Support?

  • Will the five‑year ban on Le Pen’s candidacy be upheld through the 2027 election cycle?
  • Can Bardella attract enough centre‑right voters to overcome the traditional “republican front” that unites parties against the far‑right?
  • How will the ongoing investigations into Edouard Philippe’s alleged corruption affect his standing and the broader field?

    • These uncertainties underscore the fluid naure of the upcoming presidential race , even as Bardella’s numbers suggest a decisive shift in voter sentiment.