Diesel Distress: Trump’s Rural Support Erodes as Fuel Costs Climb

President Donald Trump is experiencing a significant decline in support across ten of the largest agricultural states in the U.S. a recent Civiqs poll suggests that soaring diesel prices and skepticism over federal tax relief are alienating farmers and transport businesses.

The 24 percent approval floor in California

The current political climate in America's agricultural hubs has shifted dramatically since the start of President Donald Trump's second term. According to a Civiqs poll of 135,005 registered voters conducted between January 20, 2025, and October 8, 2026, disapproval now outweighs approval in eight of the ten most prominent farming states. The most stark example is California, where President Donald Trump's approval has plummeted to 24 percent, while disapproval has surged to 71 percent.

Similar trends are appearing in other critical regions. In Illinois, the report says disapproval stands at 66 percent against 29 percent approval, and Minnesota shows a similar divide with 64 percent disapproval and only 28 percent approval. This represents a sharp reversal from the early momentum the administration enjoyed upon entering the second term.

The $6.30 per gallon diesel ceiling

Economic pressure, specifically the cost of fuel, is the primary driver of this rural discontent. As of October 7, the average price of diesel climbed to approximately $6.30 per gallon. For farmers and trucking companies,these costs are not merely line items but existential therats to profit margins, leading to a growing skepticism regarding the administration's ability to manage the agricultural economy.

This volatility echoes previous cycles where energy costs have dictated the political fortunes of incumbents in the Midwest and South. When the cost of transporting grain and livestock rises,the political capital of the sitting president typically evaporates,regardless of other policy wins.

Why the 24-cent dyed diesel credit failed farmers

To combat rising costs, President Donald Trump signed an executive order in early October allowing the tax-free use of dyed diesel on public roads through the end of 2026 . This move effectively defers a federal excise tax worth roughly 24 cents per gallon, building upon a previous order from June that expanded access to red-dyed diesel for off-road equipment.

However, as Civiqs reported, this relief has largely missed the mark. Farmers who already utilized tax-exempt dyed diesel for their machinery saw no real-world savings. Meanwhile, trucking companies—the backbone of the agricultural supply chain—remain burdened by high prices and strict compliance restrictions, rendering the 24-cent deferral an insufficient remedy for the $6.30 per gallon reality.

The Oklahoma and Tennessee outliers

Despite the general trend of erosion, Oklahoma and Tennessee remain the only two farming states where President Donald Trump maintains a positive net rating. Oklahoma leads the group with a 47 percent approval rating, while Tennessee follows at 44 percent. These states serve as the final holdouts of the early-term surge, where Oklahoma previously boasted a net approval advantage of 31 points.

The contrast between these two states and the rest of the agricultural belt suggests that the administration's appeal is becoming increasingly regionalized . While Texas and Iowa—both massive in terms of farm count and acreage—have seen their support slip, the deep-red strongholds of the South are currently more resilient to the diesel price shocks.

Who actually benefits from the dyed diesel executive order?

The Civiqs data leaves several critical questions unanswered regarding the actual impact of the administration's fuel policies.. Specifically, it remains unclear which specific sectors of the transport industry are seeing any benefit from the dyed diesel order, given that trucking firms report continued burdens. Furthermore, the source mentions gasoline prices falling below "pre-Iran war" levels in February, but it does not specify the exact price point or the duration of that dip.

There is also a notable absence of commentary from the Department of Agriculture or Treasury officials regarding whether the 24-cent tax deferral was ever intended to be a comprehensive solution or merely a temporary political gesture ahead of the midterm elections.