American forces have conducted thirteen straight nights of airstrikes against Iranian targets. This escalating conflict follows recent warnings from Donald Trump regarding a massive offensive against Tehran.
Securing the Strait of Hormuz and $24 billion in assets
The strategic focus of the U.S. administration is increasingly centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which one-fifth of the world's energy products pass. this focus follows President Trump's assertion that Iran is responsible for Houthi-led attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.. According to Zev Faintuch, head of research and intelligence at Global Guardian, a successful outcome may be defined by Iran losing exclusive control of the Strait and the unfreezing of roughly $24 billion in Iranian funds.
This economic objective stems from a June 17 memorandum of understanding that had previously paused the conflict. While the U.S. aims to degrade the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the immediate priority appears to be stabilizing global energy transit. Faintuch noted to Newsweek that while the latest strikes have not curbed the nuclear program as effectively as the 12-day war in June, the degradation of conventional military capabilities may be viewed as a tactical victory.
Strikes on Zibakenar and the threat to Pickaxe Mountain
Recent military operations have targeted specific Iranian locations such as Zibakenar on the Caspian Sea coast and sites near Piranshahr in the northwest. As reported by Iran International, images showed smoke rising from an IRGC naval base at Zibakenar following the strikes. Additionally, a strike at the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq was reported by Iran's Mehr News Agency on Thursday.
U.S.. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has emphasized that the administration remains focused on preventing Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities. This has led to intense speculation regarding Pickaxe Mountain, an underground nuclear facility located 140 miles south of Tehran. President Trump has previously threatened to bomb the site, which sits just over a mile from the Natanz nuclear facility, adding a layer of extreme volatility to the current air campaign.
Colson's warning: Military strikes cannot force a nuclear settlement
Experts argue that military success may not resolve the underlying nuclear tension. Aurélien Colson, academic co-director of the ESSEC Business School Institute for Geopolitics & Business, told Newsweek that while the U.S. can punish Tehran by destroying air defenses or tightening sanctions, it cannot bomb the country into a stable nuclear settlement. Colson warned that if Washington defines victory as total regime collapse, it is setting itself up for failure.
This tension is reflected in the shifting metrics of success reported by various officials. While Republican Representative Michael McCaul told Fox News that the U.S. military is winning the war, the fundamental goals—stopping a nuclear weapon, degrading ballistic missiles, and ending proxy threats—seem to be being superseded by the immediate need to reopen maritime chokepoints.
Will the Shalamcheh strike precede ground operations?
The recent strike at the Shalamcheh border crossing has introduced new uncertainty regarding the potential for a ground invasion. Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi suggested on X that this specific move could signal a preparatory step for the deployment of special operations or armed insurgent groups. This possibility has heightened fears of a conflict comparable to the peak of the '40-Day War' that began in February.
However, significant questions remain regarding the scale of the next phase. While retired U.S. Vice Admiral Robert Murrett told Newsweek he sees no evidence of large-scale ground deployments, the situation remains highly unpredictable. Furthermore, as the outlet Axios reported, two U.S. officials stated that no new orders for ground activity have been issued, leaving the true intent of the administration's next move unverified.
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