WASHINGTON – The United States is actively considering a military operation to seize Karg Island, a strategically vital Iranian island responsible for approximately 90% of the country’s oil exports, according to recent reports and analysis. The possibility of a U.S. takeover has been discussed within the White House, with former President Trump suggesting the U.S. “could take it very easily,” but acknowledging the potential for significant costs.

Strategic Importance of Karg Island

Karg Island is crucial to Iran’s oil export capabilities due to its unique geographical features. Unlike much of the Iranian coastline, the waters surrounding Karg Island are deep, allowing access for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) – the largest oil tankers in the world. Iran’s three largest oil fields are connected to the island via pipeline, and several more are located offshore, making it a centralized and efficient export hub.

Challenges and Risks of a U.S. Operation

Despite the U.S. military’s capabilities, seizing Karg Island would be a highly challenging and costly operation. Iran has heavily fortified the island and the surrounding area, including laying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz and deploying a large number of drones. A ground invasion would likely face a constant barrage of attacks from artillery, missiles, and drones, with U.S. troops potentially operating in a highly exposed environment.

Experts suggest that even if the U.S. were to successfully capture the island, holding it would be difficult due to Iran’s proximity and extensive defenses. Furthermore, seizing Karg Island wouldn’t necessarily guarantee the resumption of oil flow through the Persian Gulf, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint.

Potential for Escalation

The analysis suggests that even destroying the island from the air could be seen as a major escalation by Iran, potentially leading to retaliatory attacks against U.S. allies in the Middle East. Iran has demonstrated a willingness to utilize asymmetric warfare tactics, including drone and missile attacks, and possesses a resilient population unlikely to be swayed by economic pressure.

Recent reports indicate Iran was actively increasing oil shipments from Karg Island prior to recent tensions, potentially attempting to reduce inventory in anticipation of an attack. The situation remains fluid, and the potential for miscalculation and escalation remains high.