BEIJING – A detailed analysis by CBC News’ Chris Brown, reporting from Beijing, suggests that a potential U.S. military operation to take Karg Island in Iran would be fraught with difficulty and carry a high cost in terms of American lives, while offering limited strategic benefit.

Potential Invasion Scenario

The report outlines a hypothetical invasion scenario, detailing the logistical challenges of landing troops on the island, which is close to the Iranian mainland. The analysis highlights Iran’s extensive defenses, including sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a large arsenal of drones (specifically the Shahad drone), artillery, and anti-tank weaponry. These defenses would create a “constant barrage” for U.S. forces attempting to approach and secure the island.

High Casualty Estimates

Experts cited in the report estimate potential casualties could range from dozens to hundreds, or even a thousand, if the operation were to encounter significant resistance. The report emphasizes the difficulty of knowing the full extent of Iranian defenses until troops are on the ground, a situation described as “you don’t know what you don’t know.”

Limited Strategic Value

A key argument presented is that even if the U.S. were to successfully capture Karg Island, it wouldn’t necessarily resolve the larger issue of securing the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to block oil tankers from exiting the strait, and seizing the island wouldn’t automatically reopen this vital waterway.

Previous Considerations & Iranian Response

The report also reveals that former U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly considered a strike on Karg Island approximately two weeks into a previous conflict, claiming to have “obliterated every military target.” However, he did not follow through, potentially recognizing the dangers of escalation. The analysis suggests Iran views any attack on Karg Island as a “red line” and could retaliate against U.S. allies in the Middle East, potentially targeting countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

Economic Impact & Iranian Resilience

The report concludes that even if a U.S. operation were to damage Iran’s economy, the Iranian people are “dedicated, tough, and resilient” and unlikely to be swayed by reduced oil revenues. The analysis raises serious questions about whether the potential costs of taking Karg Island outweigh the limited strategic gains.