Iran's Leadership Structure Evolves

Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28th have triggered a notable shift in Iran’s power dynamics. Intelligence sources reveal that decision-making is no longer solely centralized around the Supreme Leader.

Decentralization and the Rise of the IRGC

Multiple security and policy sources, including Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch in Israeli defense intelligence, confirm this decentralization. Despite differing approaches, there is no evidence of core decision-making fractures within the regime. A key development is the increasing militarization of Iran and the growing control exerted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), founded in 1979.

New Supreme Leader's Limited Role

Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the position of Supreme Leader after his father’s death, but he remains largely secluded and difficult to reach. This has slowed down decision-making processes. He is believed to be conscious and involved, communicating through intermediaries after sustaining injuries in the initial bombing.

Emergence of a Politburo-Style System

A new politburo-style system has emerged, with key members consistently linked to the IRGC. These include Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, General Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, General Yahya Rahim Safavi, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Challenges for International Powers

Despite the changes, sources indicate the regime maintains control, albeit in a state of disarray. The primary challenge for the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government is the Iranian side’s lack of willingness to compromise. Israeli officials acknowledge that further action is needed, potentially through negotiation or other means.

Economic Pressure and the Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a central element of the conflict, with former President Trump aiming to leverage economic pressure for concessions. The blockade’s effectiveness is bolstering resolve against compromise. As Citrinowicz stated, the current situation is a direct result of the actions taken, leading to a militarized Iran controlled by the IRGC.