President Donald Trump has utilized naval blockades as a pressure tactic against Venezuela, Cuba, and now Iran, aiming to compel these governments to meet his demands. However, this strategy encounters a markedly different landscape in the Middle East than in the Caribbean.

Iran's Strategic Importance & Military Strength

Unlike Cuba or Venezuela, Iran controls a critical trade route for global energy shipments – the Strait of Hormuz. The continuation of the standoff risks significant economic consequences for the world. Furthermore, Iran possesses a greater military capability, necessitating a sustained US military presence far from American shores.

Economic Pain Tolerance

Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz provides it with leverage during the current fragile situation. Experts suggest that growing economic risks, particularly rising gasoline prices in the US during an election year, could compel the Trump administration to lift its blockade of Iranian ports and coastline. “Now the question really is which country, the United States or Iran, has a greater pain tolerance,” explained Max Boot, a military historian and senior fellow for national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Recent Escalations & Effectiveness of the Blockade

The effectiveness of Trump’s pressure tactic – employing the US Navy to block trade in Iranian sanctioned oil and other goods – remains a subject of debate. However, tensions are demonstrably increasing as the conflict persists. On Thursday, the US military announced the seizure of another tanker linked to Iranian oil smuggling, following Iran’s Revolutionary Guard taking control of two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump has also stated he has ordered the US military to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian small boats laying mines in the strait. The situation differs significantly from US operations in Venezuela and Cuba.

Comparisons to Venezuela & Cuba

Some analysts believe the US success in Venezuela was more attributable to the military incursion that targeted then-leader Nicolás Maduro than to naval blockades. Meanwhile, a US oil embargo on Cuba has contributed to the island’s most severe economic crisis in decades. Despite recent talks between US and Cuban officials, the embargo has not achieved the Trump administration’s goal of regime change.

“I do think the success of the mission against Maduro in Venezuela has probably emboldened the president,” said Todd Huntley, director of the National Security Law Program at Georgetown University. However, he emphasized, “There are some significant differences,” geographically, militarily, and politically.

Ongoing Challenges & Shadow Traffic

While the blockade against Iran has negatively impacted its economy, hindering imports, Iran has still managed to move some of its sanctioned oil. Iran has also refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil normally flows, and has continued to fire upon ships.

This disruption has caused gasoline prices to surge, increasing the cost of food and other products, creating a political challenge for Trump as the November elections approach. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, stated that “no ships have eluded US forces,” claiming 31 ships have been turned around or returned to port as of Wednesday.

However, merchant shipping groups remain skeptical. Lloyd’s List Intelligence reports a “steady flow of shadow traffic” entering and exiting the Persian Gulf, including 11 tankers carrying Iranian cargo since April 13. Windward noted that Iranian traffic continues to flow “through deception”.