Recent data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) indicates that July saw the highest sea surface temperatures on record. this thermal spike is being driven by a strengthening Super El Niño in the Tropical Pacific.
A 20.96°C global average and the Tropical Pacific surge
Global sea surface temperatures hit a record 20.96°C (69.7°F) in July, according to data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This unprecedented warming is largely concentrated in the Tropical Pacific, the primary engine for the El Niño weather phenomenon.
The current warming trend follows a pattern of increasing thermal energy in the oceans, which often precedes severe global weather disruptions. During these El Niño phases, trade winds that typically move warm water toward Australia slow or reverse, causing a massive buildup of hot water near the surface in the equatorial and tropical Pacific Ocean.
The WMO's forecast for a 'strong' event by October
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) anticipates that this weather cycle will evolve into a "strong" event between August and October. as the WMO reported,sea surface temperatures in critical regions are expected to climb more than 2.9°C (5.2°F) above their usual seasonal averages, potentially making this the most intense El Niño ever recorded.
From European marine heatwaves to the UK's 190-year drought
Western Europe is already feeling the consequences of this oceanic heating, with average temperatures for June and July reaching 21.62°C (70.9°F). This figure sits 2.79°C (5°F) above the monthly average, shattering the previous record established in 2022 and driving severe marine heatwaves across the continent.
Extreme drought conditions have also gripped parts of the United Kingdom, where England and Wales saw their driest July in nearly two centuries. According to the report,these regions received only 10 per cent of their typical monthly rainfall, leaving most of the area in official drought status. Localized rainfall deficits are becoming extreme, with Wisley in Surrey recording 51 consecutive days withot precipitation, while Coningsby in Lincolnshire has faced 42 days without rain as of early July.
Will this become the most intense El Niño ever recorded?
While the data confirms a strengthening trend, several variables regarding the scale of the impact remain unverified. It is still unclear exactly how much the current Super El Niño will deviate from historical intensity, or how the predicted rainfall shifts in the Horn of Africa and Central Asia will interact with existing local climate volatility. Additionally, while the report notes the indirect effect on UK weather, the precise timing and severity of the "knock-on" impacts expected in early next year remain an open question.
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