National homicide rates are plummeting toward historic lows as of 2026, according to a new analysis. while most major cities are seeing a significant drop in violence, a subset of metropolitan areas is reporting sharp increases in murders.
The 1900-level plunge and the WFH effect
The national homicide rate is reportedly reaching levels unseen for over a century. According to a new analysis by a Washington DC-based nonprofit, the country witnessed a 20% year-over-year drop in murders in 2025, a trend that appears to be continuing into 2026. This decline is so significant that current figures may represent the lowest murder rates recorded since 1900.
Macro-level shifts, such as the rise of remote work and a nationwide reduction in alcohol consumption, may be contributing to this trend. The report suggests that these broad societal changes are creating a safer environment across 21 of the 30 major cities surveyed. These technological and behavioral shifts are being viewed as potential drivers for the widespread decrease in urban violence.
From Lincoln's zero-homicide streak to NYC's 25% dip
Lincoln, Nebraska, has achieved a remarkable 100% decline in homicides. The city recorded zero murders during the first six months of 2026, a stark contrast to the violence reported during the same period last year. This achievement marks Lincoln as the most significant success story in the recent survey.
Other major metropolitan areas are also seeing significant improvements in public safety. Rochester, New York, reported a 76% decrease, while Little Rock, Arkansas, and Arlington, Texas, saw drops of 61% and 60%, respectively.. Even New York City has seen a notable reduction, with 122 murders recorded through June—a nearly 25% decline from the 162 murders reported during the same period in 2025.
Norfolk's 64% surge and the Austin, Texas volatility
Norfolk, Virginia, is experiencing a sharp spike in murders that defies the national trend. The city saw a 64% increase in homicides compared to the same period last year, marking the most significant rise among the cities surveyed. This localized surge highlights that the national decline is not a universal reality for all American municipalities.
San Francisco and Dallas also reported substantial increases in violence, with jumps of 55% and 30%, respectively. Salt Lake City also recorded a 20% rise in murders. Austin, Texas, presents a particularly complex case of volatility; while the city saw a 9% year-over-year increase, the report notes a massive 74% surge in homicides when compared to the same period in 2019.
The disagreement over the DC-based nonprofit's findings
The report primarily focuses on the nonprofit's data, leaving the perspective of law enforcement agencies somewhat secondary. Local law enforcement agencies have disputed the findings, citing differences in reported figures. This disagreement leaves several critical questions unanswered: Are the reported figures inaccurate due to different accounting methods, or is there a fundamental gap in how local agencies and nonprofits track crime?
It remains unverified whether the reported 20% drop seen in 2025 will be mirrored in the full-year data for 2026. Furthermore, because the current data only covers the first half of the year, the long-term stability of these historic lows remains a matter of speculation.
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