Former President Donald Trump argued on Monday that gasoline price hikes are caused by refinery shortages rather than maritime tensions.. Speaking at the White House, he blamed damaged Russian facilities and California plant closures for the current supply constraints.
How Russian bombings and California closures create a fuel bottleneck
Donald Trump argues that the primary driver of rising gasoline prices is a lack of functional refining capacity rather than maritime security risks. During a briefing on the South Lawn of the White House, the former president suggested that the global supply of usable fuel is being choked by physical damage to infrastructure.
The report notes that Trump specifically pointed to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where attacks on Russian refineries have significantly hmapered the ability to process crude oil. By targeting these facilities, the war has created a global bottleneck that limits the conversion of raw oil into consumer-ready gasoline.
Domestically, Trump directed his criticism toward California, where he accused political opponents of overseeing plant shutdowns that further restrict supply. This argument frames the energy crisis as a combination of foreign warfare and domestic regulatory failure, rather than a simple shortage of crude oil.
Why Gulf exporters reached 18.3 million barrels per day
Shipping statistics from Kpler indicate that the supply of crude oil is actually quite robust, contradicting the idea that a lack of oil is the problem. According to the report, Gulf oil exporters exceeded their pre-war export levels for 15 days during the month of September.
Data shows that the seven-day moving average for crude exports from the Gulf region hit 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30. This high volume of movement suggests that while the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of global oil traffic, the issue lies in what happens after the oil reaches its destination.
The disconnect between high export volumes and high retail prices supports the theory that refining capacity is the true limiting factor. Even with massive amounts of crude moving through global shipping lanes, the inability to process that crude into gasoline keeps prices elevated for consumers.
The unverified 25% surge in September gasoline sales
While the former president provided several specific figures, some of the data points regarding U.S. demand remain uncorroborated by independent agencies. trump claimed that U.S. gasoline sales saw a 25% increase in September, a figure that serves as a centerpiece for his argument regarding market strain.
However, the source does not provide an independent audit of this 25% figure, leaving it as a contested claim. It is currently unknown whether this surge is a seasonal trend or a direct result of the refinery shortages Trump described.
Additionally, the specific impact of California's refinery closures on the national gasoline average remains an open question. While Trump emphasizes the role of political opponents in these shutdowns,analysts have yet to quantify exactly how much these localized closures contribute to the broader national price volatility compared to international supply shocks.
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