The Valero Texas Open is the final PGA Tour event before the Masters, and the SI Golf betting panel has released their picks for outright winners, first-round leaders, and prop bets.

Outright Picks: Contenders for the Title

Hideki Matsuyama is a strong contender, ranking third in total strokes gained over the past three months. He has a history of success at the event, with two top-15 finishes in the last three years, including a T7 in 2024. His exceptional chipping skills are well-suited for TPC San Antonio, where scrambling is crucial.

Sepp Straka is also favored, with odds that analysts believe should be lower given his recent performance. Straka has four PGA Tour wins since 2022 and recently finished in the top 10 at The Players Championship.

Russell Henley leads the field in strokes gained in 2024, including a T13 at The Players and a T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His bogey avoidance skills are particularly advantageous, as scoring averages at the Valero typically finish over par.

Key Player Analysis

Matsuyama’s ability to gain strokes on approach and with the putter is encouraging, despite struggles off the tee. If he can combine all aspects of his game, he represents strong value in the outright market.

Straka’s consistent ball-striking and improving finishes at TPC San Antonio make him a compelling pick. He’s third in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and Top 10 in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Henley’s success at the Valero, including a fourth-place finish in 2024, demonstrates a strong course fit. His ability to avoid bogeys is a significant advantage.

Additional Picks and Predictions

Other notable picks include:

  • Hisatsune: Showing promising form with multiple top-10 finishes this season.
  • Thorbjorn Olesen: Has a strong track record at TPC San Antonio, with a T14 in 2024 and a T5 in 2023.
  • Harman: The defending champion and an Open Champion, benefiting from his strong short game in windy conditions.
  • Yellamaraju: Recent strong performances at The Players and Houston Open make him a solid longshot.
  • Denny McCarthy: Consistent performance at the event, with four top-20 finishes in six starts.
  • Sudarshan: Demonstrating strong form with back-to-back top-10 finishes.
  • Sam Ryder: Comfortable at the Valero, with a strong first-round record.
  • Mitchell: Consistent at the event and striking the ball well.
  • Karl: Strong approach play and a top-10 finish in Texas.

Prop Bets and First-Round Leader

Analysts also highlighted the value of betting on players to be the first-round leader, noting that the winner of the tournament has been Top 5 after the first round in each of the last five years. Sudarshan is a strong contender for this prop bet.

A prop bet on the 18th hole, considering its historical scoring patterns, is also recommended.