The World Meteorological Organization released a stark forecast on Tuesday, saying there is an 86% probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be the hottest on record. lead scientist Leon Hermanson warned that an El Niño expected this summer could push global temperatures past the 1.5 °C threshold as early as next year.

86% chance of a record‑breaking year by 2030

The WMO’s latest assessment assigns an 86% likelihood that a year in the 2026‑2030 window will eclipse all previous temperature records. The report also cites a 91% chance that the 1.5 °C ceiling will be temporarily breached during the same period. According to the agency, these odds are driven by a combination of greenhouse‑gas emissions trends and natural climate variability.

Arctic winters could be 2.8 °C above average

Hermanson’s analysis highlights that the Arctic will feel the heat disproportionally, with projected winter temperatures 2.8 °C higher than the long‑term average – more than three and a half times the global mean anomaly. this accelerated warming threatens further sea‑ice loss in the Barents, Bering and Sea of Okhotsk, compounding risks for coastal communities and wildlife.

El Niño expected to amplify 2024 heat

The report flags an anticipated El Niño event developing this summer and persisting through the year, a factor that could push temperatures to unprecedented levels. as the UN’s climate envoy Nigel Stiell notes, the pattern “could push global temperatures to unprecedented heights , potentially as early as next year.”

Nigel Stiell calls climate action 'core business' for nations

UN Secretary‑General’s Special Envoy for Climate Ambition and Solutions , Nigel Stiell, used the WMO findings to stress that climate mitigation is “core business for every nation.” He urged a swift transition away from fossil fuels , warning that delay would lock in the worst‑case scenarios outlined in the report.

Will nations meet the fossil‑fuel transition timeline?

Key uncertainties remain: whether major economies can align policy with the rapid decarbonisation needed, and how soon the projected El Niño will materialise. The WMO reort does not provide a clear pathway for achieving the emissions cuts required to stay below 1.5 °C, leaving policymakers to fill the gap.