President Donald Trump has prioritized efforts to stabilize the financial markets during the ongoing conflict with Iran. However, his established methods for calming investor nerves are reportedly beginning to fail.

Inconsistent Messaging Fails to Contain Market Anxiety

When market indicators signal distress, Trump has frequently utilized social media posts or public remarks to suggest the conflict, which began in late February, might conclude soon. Despite these assurances, the S&P 500 stock index has dropped over the last five weeks, and the global oil benchmark has increased by approximately 60%.

Trump publicly stated at a Friday investor summit that oil prices were lower than he had anticipated. He also noted that the stock market decline was less severe than expected, remarking, “I thought oil prices were going to go up higher than they are now,” and “I thought that we would see a bigger drop in stock. It hasn’t been that bad.”

White House Focus on Financial Indicators

The White House has largely avoided aggressive public messaging about the economic fallout of the Iran war. Instead, the strategy has centered on containing damage within the financial markets. These markets are viewed as an indirect channel to reach voters, given Trump’s economic platform relies on low gas prices, strong 401(k) performance, and affordable mortgage rates.

This messaging strategy is showing signs of strain. A significant portion of the world's energy supply remains disrupted by the conflict, regardless of presidential statements. A March survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicated that only 38% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's economic handling, and only 35% support his approach to Iran.

Expert Analysis on Diminishing Returns

Gene Sperling, a former top economic adviser across Democratic administrations, argued that the public directly links rising gasoline prices to Trump’s decision to engage militarily with Iran. He suggested that “simplistic jawboning” is inadequate for the public facing higher costs at the pump.

Sperling emphasized that effective leadership requires acknowledging the economic pain caused by policy decisions and justifying the national security rationale. He noted, “Instead, you have a strategy of not recognizing or even dismissing people’s economic pain.”

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale University School of Management professor and co-author of “Trump’s Ten Commandments,” observed that the strategy is backfiring. He stated, “The uncertainty is now soaring,” adding that as reassurances lose credibility in financial circles, public confidence in Trump has also eroded.

Mixed Signals and Market Reactions

During a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, Trump claimed Iran was “begging” for a settlement while simultaneously threatening further military action. He maintained that any resulting U.S. economic harm would be temporary.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends” on Monday that Iran was permitting some tankers passage through the Strait of Hormuz. He attributed stable supply to countries releasing strategic reserves and the temporary removal of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil already aboard tankers.

Graham Steele, a former Biden-era Treasury official, noted that such messaging techniques offer only short-term effects if disconnected from tangible policy outcomes. He observed that initial volatility has given way to a “steady trend upward in prices,” indicating markets are no longer reacting strongly to the pronouncements.

Consumer Sentiment Reflects Economic Uncertainty

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 53.3 in March, its lowest point since December. Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers, attributed this decline to financial market volatility following the Iran conflict, particularly affecting middle and higher-income households.

Hsu mentioned that while consumers do not anticipate energy costs and stock declines to be permanent, this outlook could shift if the conflict drags on or if energy prices fuel broader inflation. Gus Faucher, Chief Economist at PNC Financial Services, cautioned that low sentiment does not guarantee a recession.

Faucher concluded that consumers require concrete improvements—specifically lower gas prices, a stable stock market, and reduced mortgage rates—which likely necessitates a definitive resolution to the conflict rather than further presidential statements. He stated, “The proof is in the pudding.”