President Trump finds himself in an increasingly difficult position regarding Iran. Even a de-escalation of current tensions risks leaving the United States worse off than before the recent conflict began.

Escalation and Limited Gains

For the past month, the U.S. has been conducting airstrikes targeting locations identified by intelligence, seemingly aiming to overwhelm Iran with firepower. However, this strategy has yielded limited results. While Iranian leaders have been killed and infrastructure damaged, the core elements of the regime – a theocratic state with a powerful military and a hidden nuclear program – remain intact.

Aiken's Advice and Potential 'Victory'

The situation echoes Senator George Aiken’s advice to President Lyndon B. Johnson during the Vietnam War: “declare victory and go home.” Trump may be considering a similar approach, but doing so would reinforce the perception of the U.S. as an unreliable ally, potentially even a rogue nation.

The Trap of Rhetoric and Action

Trump has suggested the war might end soon, potentially as a tactic to intimidate Iran, similar to Richard Nixon’s strategies. However, this approach creates a trap. Iran is likely to take Trump’s words seriously and prepare for further threats.

The Risk of Appearing Weak

If Trump backs down, he risks appearing weak, emboldening not only Iran but also other adversaries. Driven by a desire to avoid appearing weak, he may escalate the conflict against his better judgment.

Potential Military Missions and Their Challenges

Recent reports indicate Trump has considered three potential ground troop missions: securing the Strait of Hormuz, retaking Kharg Island (Iran’s oil terminal), and seizing Iran’s enriched uranium. Each mission presents significant difficulties and risks widening the war.

Securing the Strait of Hormuz

Securing the Strait of Hormuz would require “many thousands” of troops to occupy surrounding land and even more to provide logistical support. These troops would be vulnerable to Iranian drones and cruise missiles, which have the range and accuracy to strike from inland.

Kharg Island and Uranium Seizure

Occupying Kharg Island, while potentially disrupting oil exports, would be a separate and challenging operation. Seizing Iran’s uranium is equally complex, as the location of the material is uncertain. A special operations mission to locate and secure the uranium would be elaborate and time-consuming, requiring significant logistical support.

Logistical Realities and Troop Numbers

Military operations are far more complex than often perceived. Beyond troops on the ground, there are logistical demands for supplies, air support, intelligence gathering, and defense against attacks. The U.S. has already increased its military presence in the area by approximately 10,000 troops.

A retired Navy officer estimates at least 100,000 troops would be needed for the proposed missions, potentially many more, and for an extended period.

Misleading Perceptions and Historical Lessons

Trump appears to believe that demonstrating military power alone will compel adversaries to submit. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, expressed surprise that Iran didn’t concede after the deployment of two U.S. aircraft carriers. However, this assumption may be flawed, and an invasion could galvanize Iranian resistance.

Vice President Pence initially dismissed the possibility of a prolonged Middle East conflict, but recently stated, “we’re taking care of business,” regardless of the time required. The events of the past month demonstrate a lack of clarity regarding U.S. national security objectives in the region.