Trump's Iran Policy Leaves Europe Facing Energy Crisis

Europe finds itself grappling with the consequences of a US conflict with Iran, a situation European nations did not seek. Former President Trump’s approach, characterized by a lack of consultation with allies and a demand for them to resolve the resulting issues, has created a complex bind for European countries.

Trump's 'We Broke It, You Own It' Stance

In late February, Donald Trump addressed the Iranian people, stating, “When we are finished, take over your government,” following the initiation of military action. Weeks later, a similar message was directed towards Europe, which is now contending with a renewed energy crisis after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a vital waterway for global oil transport, handling roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

“Go to the Strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves,” Trump stated in a Wednesday night address. He urged Europe to “grab it and cherish it,” suggesting the US would offer assistance but that Europe should take the lead in securing its oil supply. However, his statements were inconsistent, simultaneously calling for force and predicting the waterway would “open up naturally” after the conflict.

A Shift in US Middle East Policy

Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, described Trump’s actions as a new doctrine for US policy in the Middle East. He noted an inversion of the traditional “you break it, you buy it” rule, with Trump now asserting, “We broke it, but you own it.”

Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, criticized the lack of consultation, stating, “There was a way to bring our NATO allies into the discussion… The president decided to do none of that. He decided to start a war without talking to Congress, without talking to the American people, without talking to our allies.”

Energy Shock and EU Concerns

Even if Trump finds a way to declare victory and withdraw from the conflict, Europe will face two significant consequences. The most immediate is the energy shock caused by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. Europe is still recovering from the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy.

Bruegel, a Brussels-based think-tank, warned that the EU’s energy bill could increase significantly due to bidding wars for alternative gas supplies, potentially including from the US. This crisis could also lead to questioning the EU’s decision to phase out Russian fossil fuels, with some, like Belgium’s prime minister Bart De Wever, calling for normalized relations with Russia to regain access to cheaper energy.

Strain on the NATO Alliance

A more fundamental consequence is the strain on the NATO alliance. Trump expressed frustration that allies, who deemed the war with Iran illegal and were not consulted, did not immediately offer assistance. He even suggested considering withdrawing the US from NATO due to what he perceived as a lackluster response. “They haven’t been friends when we needed them,” Trump told Reuters, describing the alliance as “a one-way street.”

Erosion of Trust

Daalder emphasized that military alliances are built on trust, stating, “It’s hard to see how any European country will now be able and willing to trust the United States to come to its defense.” Analysts suggest Europe recognized the shift in US reliability some time ago.

European leaders have begun to assert their independence, with French President Emmanuel Macron criticizing Trump’s inconsistencies and calling his idea of “forcibly liberating” the Strait of Hormuz “unrealistic.” Europe is now focused on reducing its reliance on both American weapons and fossil fuels, accelerating its transition to renewable energy sources.

Recognizing the US may no longer be a dependable ally, Europe is proactively working to mitigate the impact of that reality.