President Trump announced Wednesday night that he believes the “core strategic objectives” of the U.S. war with Iran are “nearing completion.” Despite continued attacks from both sides and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, he anticipates the conflict will end within several weeks.

Timeline for Resolution

Mr. Trump stated the U.S. military mission in Iran will be “completed very shortly,” and warned that the U.S. will “hit Iran extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. He initially indicated Iran had expressed a desire for a ceasefire.

Strait of Hormuz Security

The President made it clear he could end U.S. operations without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane. He urged countries heavily reliant on the strait to “take care of that passage” and “grab it and cherish it,” expressing frustration with allies who haven’t joined the U.S.-Israeli war effort.

Market Reactions

Following the President’s address, crude oil futures spiked by more than 5%, while stock futures declined. This reversed earlier gains in oil prices and a stock market rally that had occurred with hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict.

Financial Market Impact

  • Dow futures fell just under 1% after the speech.
  • S&P 500 futures dropped roughly 1.1%.
  • Asian markets also experienced declines: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.9%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.9%.
  • U.S. crude oil futures jumped from $98 to nearly $104 per barrel.
  • Brent Crude spiked from just under $100 to nearly $106 per barrel.

Potential Further Action

If Iran does not reach an agreement with the U.S., President Trump stated the military will “hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously.” He also suggested targeting Iran’s oil industry, a vital source of revenue for the country.

Responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz

President Trump reiterated that other countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil should take responsibility for ensuring the safe passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. He suggested they should “grab it and cherish it,” while also proposing they purchase U.S. oil.

Claims and Counterclaims

The President claimed the operation has degraded Iran’s missiles, drones, and navy, and alleged Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon. However, the U.S. intelligence community stated last year that Iran did not have an active nuclear weapons program. He also blamed rising U.S. gas prices on Iranian “deranged terror attacks.”

Military Successes

President Trump asserted that the U.S. military has achieved “swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield,” claiming Iran has suffered “clear and devastating large-scale losses.” U.S. Central Command reported over 12,300 targets hit and more than 155 Iranian vessels damaged or destroyed.

International Relations

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is scheduled to visit President Trump at the White House next week. This meeting occurs as Mr. Trump criticizes NATO member states for not participating in the war with Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the U.S. may need to “reexamine” its relationship with NATO.

Iranian Response

Iran’s military announced a new wave of missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. and Israeli sites. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Pezeshkian addressed the American people in a letter claiming Iran harbors no ill will toward U.S. citizens and warning of “consequences” for targeting Iranian facilities.