Washington and Tehran have provided mismatched schedules for a potential diplomatic breakthrough. This uncertainty arrives as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reacts to recent fire into northern Israel, threatening US-led ceasefire efforts.

The IRGC's influence on Tehran's wartime strategy

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains a pivotal, often disruptive , force in Iran's approach to the United States.. As reported by the source, analysts suggest this powerful security body has likely been directing Iran's wartime strategy throughout the current conflict. Established in 1979 as a parallel institution to the national army, the IRGC reports directly to the Supreme Leader and maintains deep control over the Iranian economy, including interests in the construction, telecommunications, auto, and energy industries.

Because the IRGC is viewed as a major security threat by the US, the EU, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, its involvement complicates any diplomatic breakthrough. the group's interests often diverge from purely diplomatic goals, creating a reality where the official government negotiates while the IRGC maintains a hardline military posture.

Hardliners target Abbas Araghchi with planned protests

While the Iranian regime attempts to project a unified front to President Donald Trump, significant internal dissent is surfacing. According to the report, hardliners have mobilized to organize a large demonstration scheduled for tonight outside the foreign ministry. This protest specifically targets Iran's lead negotiator, Abbas Araghchi, in a move that defies official calls for national unity .

These dissenting factions, which include veteran conservative politicians and state-aligned media voices, argue that any agreement with the US and Israel constitutes a surrender of wartime gains. Some voices within these factions have even gone so far as to claim that the Supreme Leader himself has been "duped" into the agreement. This internal friction highlights that Iran's political landscape is far more fractured than the regime's official narrative suggests.

Israeli strikes in Beirut threaten the fragile ceasefire

The military situation on the ground continues to undermine diplomatic efforts. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut, citing a need to respond to fire directed at northern Israel. this follows a pattern of escalation; a week ago, Israeli strikes in Beirut triggered an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel, nearly derailing US-led ceasefire attepts.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously stated that Israel would not allow firing on its territory and would act accordingly. The current volatility stems from a recent US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which stipulated that Israel would not target Beirut if Hezbollah refrained from attacking Israeli civilians. However, Hezbollah has rejected this arrangement, and the recent strikes mark the fourth time Israel has targeted Beirut since the mid-April ceasefire went into effect.

What remains unknown about the US-Iran agreement terms?

Despite the urgency expressed by President Donald Trump, who has insisted on a rapid signing,several critical pieces of the potential deal remain unverified. First, the specific terms of the agreement are currently in dispute, as both the US and Iran have shared different information regarding what the final document actually entails.

Second, it remains unclear if the IRGC will ultimately allow the civilian government to finalize the deal or if they will use military provocations to ensure its failure. finally, while Iran had previously suggested a signing could happen as soon as today, the conflicting timelines offered by both sides leave the actual moment of signature in doubt.