The $30 million toe in the water

A potential agreement between the US and Iran is within reach, with officials estimating an 80-85 percent confidence level for signing in the coming days.

The deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and dismantle Iran's nuclear program, but key details remain to be ironed out.

A 60-day technical negotiation is envisioned to iron out details on the nuclear issue, including decommissioning nuclear sites and ensuring Iran does not build a nuclear weapon.

Why 4,000 unsold units became the prize

The agreement would ultimately dismantle Iran's nuclear program, end Iranian funding of proxy groups, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and provide economic benefits based on Iranian performance.

A memorandum of understanding specifies the opening of the Strait, lifting of the blockade, and destruction of enriched material.

The Iranian system is very complicated, but most people with authority want to sign, though internal fractures are still being resolved.

An echo of Sydney's 2024 institutionnal buy-up

A senior administration official stated, We are not quite at the finish line yet, but we are very close.

The official acknowledged that some Iranian hardliners want to kill the deal but believe dissent is quite minimal.

President Trump confirmed that final points have been approved in both concept and great detail, and he cancelled a third night of bombings against Iran on Thursday.

Who is the unnamed buyer?

The outcome remains uncertain, but the next few days will be critical in determining whether the deal will be signed.

The White House has previously teased being close to a deal without success, and recent hostilities have included Iranian strikes on US forces and exchanges between Israel and Iran.

Michael O'Hanlon, a defense expert at the Brookings Institution, noted that the terms largely reflect earlier redlines, which is both promising and a reminder that the deal could fall apart at any time.