Houthi rebels have seized Mayun island and a Red Sea port, threatening critical shipping lanes. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia deactivated its East-West oil pipeline following recent attacks.
The Capture of Mayun Island and the 12% Global Trade Risk
Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have taken control of Mayun island, located at the entrance of the Red Sea. According to the report, this strategic position allows the rebels to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway through which approximately 12 per cent of the world's goods typically flow. The Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, claimed that maritime navigation remains safe for most companies, excluding Saudi vessels.
The expansion of Houthi control also extended to the city of Mokha, where rebels seized a compound previously used by United Nations staff. A UN spokesperson, Farhan Haq, confirmed that all personnel had evacuated the city safely before the capture. This territorial gain increases the rebels' ability to disrupt international freight moving between Europe and Asia.
Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline Shutdown and the 30-Year Supply Low
Saudi Arabia has shut down its major East-West oil pipeline as a precautionary measure following a series of attacks. This pipeline is a critical piece of infrastructure that allows the kingdom to move oil across the desert to Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing the volatile Strait of Hormuz. As reported, the Saudi Energy Ministry has not yet identified the perpetrators of the attacks.
The timing of this shutdown is particularly precarious for global energy markets.. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that overall Saudi supply has fallen to 6 million barrels per day, the lowest level seen in three decades. While Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea port had more than doubled since February 28, the recent Houthi advance and pipeline attacks have severely compromised this alternative export route.
From 24 to 54 Days: The Cost of Avoiding Bab el-Mandeb
The instability in the Red Sea has forced a massive redirection of Saudi energy exports. According to Lloyd's List, roughly 70% of crude exports from Yanbu are now routed northwest toward the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean coast. This workaround is an expensive necessity, as tankers too large for the canal must offload oil at Ain Sokhna in Egypt to be transported via pipeline to Sidi Kerir.
This logistical shift creates a significant delay for Asian markets. Victoria Grabenwoger, a senior research analyst at Kpler, notes that transit time to destinations like South Korea has increased from 24 days to 54 days. With charter costs for tankers sometimes exceeding $100,000 per day during current energy turmoil, these delays add immense costs to the global supply chain.
Anthropic's Ban on Houthi Missile Software Development
Beyond physical combat, the conflict has entered the digital realm. The AI company Anthropic recently blocked users in northern Yemen who were utilizing its Claude Code models to develop weapons programs. The company reported that these users were attempting to create software for precision,long-range ballistic, and hypersonic missiles, including guided rockets that could be tracked autonomously via smartphones.
This revelation raises a critical question: to what extent have these AI-driven tools already improved Houthi capabilities? While Anthropic stated there is no evidence that the users successfully fielded a weapon, the attempt highlights a new frontier in the smuggling of advanced military technology despite UN arms embargoes.
Iran's 10-Ship Attack and the Monday Oman Summit
The crisis in the Red Sea is mirrored by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran recently claimed to have attacked 10 ships in the strait on Wednesday, further complicating the U.S. military's efforts to guide tankers through the region.. This dual-pressure on Saudi Arabia's primary shipping lanes creates a strategic stranglehold on the kingdom's oil exports.
In response to the volatility, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei announced a regional meeting in Oman scheduled for Monday. This summit, which includes representatives from Iraq and Oman, aims to discuss the management of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, though it remains unclear if the meeting will lead to a sustainable de-escalation.
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