Putin Risks Catastrophic Miscalculation That Could Trigger NATO Article 5 Vladimir Putin is on the brink of a catastrophic miscalculation that could trigger NATO Article 5 and tip Europe towards World War III, warns Mark Almond. Vladimir Putin is on the brink of a catastrophic miscalculation that could trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and tip Europe towards World War III, according to Mark Almond. The warning comes as Russia continues its expansionist ambitions following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Almond, who has watched the Russian leader for 30 years, believes Putin hopes to expand Russian borders further into Eastern Europe. Historical Parallels and Putin's AmbitionsWars often begin with a simple miscalculation, as in 1914 when the Kaiser assumed Britain would remain neutral if Germany invaded Belgium. Prime Minister Herbert Asquith instead pledged Brussels the Empire's whole-hearted and unfailing support, leading Britain into the Great War which killed three-quarters of a million Britons. Over 100 years later, Putin is repeating that mistake, with Russian tanks unlikely to stop at Kyiv.A leaked Kremlin 2023 memo outlined plans for the annexation of Russian ally Belarus by 2030. Despite being 73 years old, Putin still fancies himself as a dynamic wartime leader in the mould of Peter The Great or Ivan The Terrible. Having observed the dictator for three decades, Almond is in no doubt he hopes to echo his predecessors by expanding Russian borders into Eastern Europe, with its strong Russian cultural heritage.Putin, in other words, is now an old man in a hurry. Almond fears he is on the cusp of ordering a miscalculated escalation that could plunge Europe, as Churchill once said, into a new Dark Age.Evidence of Planned Further MobilisationThree developments suggest the Russian leader is preparing further military action that could inadvertently trigger Article 5, the NATO clause stating that any attack on a member nation is an attack against the whole.First, there is credible evidence Moscow is planning a significant further mobilisation of troops. Last month, Ukraine's President Zelensky warned Russia was planning a rapid mobilisation of some 300,000 men by the end of the year. In the last week of August, at least 113,000 Russian citizens fled the country through the so-called Upper Lars checkpoint into Georgia, likely dodging this impending draft.The Kremlin has meanwhile ordered Army generals to increase data collection on reservists, including their whereabouts and readiness to fight. A draft bill has also been proposed, fining Russian companies up to a million rubles, equivalent to £9,000, for failing to support the war effort or impeding mobilisation.Border Restrictions and Military ExercisesSecond, and chillingly, last weekend Russia's Federal Security Service imposed restrictions on movement in two areas along the country's border with Estonia, including a night-time curfew. They are also said to be fortifying the bank of the Narva River marking the border.This suggests preparations for a land invasion of this NATO state. Estonia is a small country with a population of just over a million people and a mere 7,000 active military personnel. Much of it is Russian-speaking, and its borderlands retain a strong Soviet nostalgia. Yes, Estonia has been a part of NATO since 2004, but would its allies really go to war with Russia for it? Would the men of Nuremberg, Nantes or Nottingham risk their lives for the villagers of Vasknarva or Lutepaa?Third, last week, close Russian ally Belarus launched a major four-day military exercise near its borders with Poland and Lithuania, including tank battalions. The drills took place near the strategically crucial 25-mile Suwalki Gap. Crossing Lithuanian and Polish territory, this is the shortest route between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast. If Putin could seize the Gap, it would be disastrous for the Baltic States, which would be cut off from the rest of the continent and left as sitting ducks for the Russian military machine.On top of these Belarusian drills, earlier this month Moscow allegedly flew a drone across the Gap into Kaliningrad, in an apparent attempt to survey NATO air defences.NATO's Response and Western ResolveThe direction of travel seems all too clear. The question for Andy Burnham and other NATO leaders is whether any of these actual or potential incursions meet the threshold for triggering Article 5. And, more to the point, whether Western Europe has the means to triumph in a clash with Moscow and its allies.To his immense discredit, Donald Trump has long cosied up to the repulsive Putin. With the US President's foolish war in the Middle East proving hard to stop, he is unlikely to embroil American troops in further escalations in Europe, especially for a perceived minor incursion by Russia into the Baltics. Knowing this, other European countries have signified their readiness to act.As tensions mount, the world watches to see if Putin will indeed make a catastrophic miscalculation that could plunge Europe into another devastating conflict.