A recent national poll indicates a strong public perception in the United States that prediction markets, especially those involving sports outcomes, are functionally equivalent to traditional gambling activities. This sentiment emerges despite the growing presence of these platforms in the American marketplace.

Public Perception of Prediction Markets

Overwhelming Majority Equates Markets to Gambling

The survey, commissioned by the advocacy group “Gambling is Not Investing,” found that a significant majority of Americans hold this view. Specifically, 81% of respondents believe that sports betting conducted on prediction markets is indistinguishable from conventional gambling.

The findings suggest that U.S. consumers remain hesitant to fully embrace this emerging financial sector. Furthermore, the poll uncovered growing negative sentiment regarding the visibility of prediction markets on social media and other public forums.

Concerns Over Youth Exposure and Safety

A primary driver of this public concern centers on the potential exposure of underage and young individuals to these platforms. The poll, which surveyed over 15,000 U.S. adults, revealed that more than three-quarters are worried about younger people facing “gambling-related harms.”

Mick Mulvaney, executive director of Gambling is Not Investing, stated, “This polling confirms that unabated sports gambling on prediction markets is a growing concern across America.” He further argued that these markets attempt to “disguise their sports betting products as a financial investment, misleading Americans and dodging consumer safeguards, like age requirements.”

Regulatory Disparity Sparks Calls for Stricter Oversight

Demand for Sportsbook-Level Regulations

The survey results strongly favor subjecting prediction markets to the same regulatory framework applied to established sportsbooks. Upwards of 81% of those polled believe these platforms should adhere to state gaming regulations.

These desired regulations include stringent age-related restrictions, specific taxation rules, and robust problem gambling safeguards. This contrasts with the current oversight structure, where prediction markets are often governed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), typically requiring users to be 18, unlike sportsbooks which often require users to be 21.

Regulatory Developments at the CFTC

In a related development earlier this year, the CFTC took steps to engage with the sector. As recently as February, the agency established a 35-member advisory committee, signaling support for major marketplace players like Kalshi and Polymarket.

CFTC chairman Michael Selig commented on this move in February, noting, “The IAC’s work will help ensure the CFTC’s decisions reflect market realities so the agency can future-proof its markets and develop clear rules of the road for the Golden Age of American Financial Markets.”