Norwegian PM says Russia threat is real but warns against paranoia
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store says Russia has spent years building capacity to attack undersea infrastructure, calling the threat real but urging sober analysis rather than paranoia during
Norwegian PM says Russia threat is real but warns against paranoia Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store says Russia has spent years building capacity to attack undersea infrastructure, calling the threat real but urging sober analysis rather than paranoia during a visit to Canada. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store says threats from Russia are part of the modern security picture and must be taken seriously, but he warns against letting concern escalate into paranoia. He made the comments in Ottawa after speaking at the University of Ottawa and appearing on CBC's Power & Politics with host David Cochrane. Store said NATO intelligence services are pointing to a real and ongoing threat, especially for countries closer to the Russian border, including Canada. Store said Russia has for many years focused on underwater infrastructure such as communications cables and pipelines. He said Moscow has the capacity to operate, monitor, and if need be interrupt such assets.This is nothing new to Norway, he said, adding that it illustrates something not only Norway but also others need to be aware of. He said he would not dramatize the issue but stressed the need for sober analysis. The threat conversation gained new attention this week after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia is planning hybrid strikes on NATO territory. Store said incidents in Europe this summer have raised alarm bells for NATO partners.Russian Threats Target Undersea InfrastructureGerman authorities blamed Russia for a drone attack at an airport in central Germany in August. Last week, Bulgarian authorities announced they are investigating a fire at a munitions storage facility operated by arms maker EMCO, whose weapons are used in Ukraine. Reuters reported this month that NATO allies in the spring caught Russian submarines training to deploy a secret weapon designed to disable critical undersea cables without leaving fingerprints.The clandestine operation was carried out by Moscow's GUGI undersea warfare directorate, which used deep-sea submersibles to simulate deployment of the destructive technology. A joint operation involving Britain, Norway and the United States tracked and confronted the Russian vessels at sea. The vessels were prevented from completing their exercise and eventually left the area. Some Western intelligence officials fear the Kremlin is ramping up sabotage operations in Europe and preparing for a conflict with NATO.Store said Norway and its allies are working hard to safeguard their assets from Russians or other actors. You cannot have a police officer at every corner on the seabed, he said, but advanced systems are in place to monitor how they operate, where they are and where they sail. He noted that 9,000 kilometers of pipelines connect the United Kingdom and Norway to common energy sources, and that these are monitored closely.Three years ago, Norway spearheaded an effort with Germany to create a mechanism in NATO that works with private companies operating such infrastructure. Europe and America are linked by cables and fibre, he said, describing that as a lifeline that must be carefully looked after. Asked whether he agreed with warnings that Russia could attack Europe within five to 10 years, Store said he would not use such language.Nations Preparing for Hybrid WarfareLast December, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Russia could be ready to use military force against the alliance within five years and that we are Russia's next target. Store said the focus should be on being prepared, with defense, surveillance and intelligence serving that purpose. Norway shares a land border of nearly 200 kilometers with Russia. Store cautioned against seeing Moscow's hand in every problem that crops up.When threats appear, they should be discussed, but not every irregularity in daily life should be identified as Russian interference, he said. Otherwise, you become a bit paranoid. He said Finland, another country bordering Russia, joining NATO in 2023 means Oslo and Helsinki can share sober analysis of threats and make each other more secure. Russia launched an all-out military assault on Ukraine in 2022 that continues to this day.Store said he is fond of an expression from Finland: We are not afraid, but we are prepared. He said regional groups must come together under the current threat environment, welcoming Canada's recent move to seek membership in the United Kingdom-led Joint Expeditionary Force. The JEF is a collection of a few NATO nations whose mandate is to respond more quickly in a crisis. It was initially formed by the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Nordic and Baltic countries.Store said it is now important to talk more closely with countries that share challenges and security risks, including Poland, Germany, Belgium and Canada. Store said the JEF is helpful when issues may be too big for a country on its own or not up to the scale of Article 5, the NATO clause that requires alliance members to defend any other member that has been attacked.He told Power & Politics that NATO allies are engaged in sophisticated debate over the threshold for Article 5 to be triggered. With Russia struggling to reach its strategic objectives in Ukraine, it could be wanting to test Ukraine's partners, Store said. Store also emphasized Norway's view of Canada as an Arctic partner. We see Canada very much part of the Northern sphere, he said.Arctic Security Cooperation with CanadaWe have the Atlantic between us, but we are Arctic states. With Russia not an ally in the Arctic, Canada and Norway must stay very, very closely connected to maintain order in the North. The Kremlin has said Arctic militarization is a direct threat to Russia. In July, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney chose to buy a dozen submarines from a European shipbuilder instead of a Korean firm after a months-long, hotly contested bidding process.The chosen partnership involves a German company but partners with Norway, with the three nations collaborating to produce and maintain the submarines. Store said interoperability across submarines is a major step to increase Arctic security, as well as for industrial cooperation on Arctic research. He said the countries need to work on coast guards and on space-based surveillance capability, calling it an exciting theme between Norway and Canada. Store was welcomed to Canada by Carney on Sunday.The Norwegian delegation's visit comes after Carney's address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, a meeting with the new United Kingdom Prime Minister Andy Burnham in Liverpool, England, and a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, a French territory 20 kilometers off the southern coast of Newfoundland. On possible European Union associate membership, Store said he welcomes deeper ties with Canada but only on a basis that is real and has meaning.As Europe's most integrated non-EU country, Store said Canada, the United Kingdom and Norway should work more closely with the EU on new areas requiring cooperation such as space, critical minerals, energy and artificial intelligence.
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