Paxton Holds Lead Over Cornyn in Texas GOP Runoff Polling

An exclusive survey commissioned by the Senate Majority PAC reveals that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is currently ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Republican primary runoff scheduled for May.

The poll of likely GOP runoff voters showed Paxton leading Cornyn by a margin of 47% to 42%. Furthermore, Paxton's support appears more robust among this electorate.

Voter Intensity and Electorate Profile

Voter commitment levels suggest a potential turnout advantage for Paxton. Thirty-eight percent of respondents identified as strong supporters of Paxton, compared to 30% for Cornyn.

The electorate surveyed is highly conservative. Eighty-four percent identified as MAGA supporters, and 69% described themselves as strong Republicans. Nearly all participants, 94%, expressed certainty about voting in the late May runoff.

Enthusiasm metrics also favor the Attorney General. Eighty-five percent of Paxton’s backers rated their likelihood to vote as a perfect 10 on a 10-point scale. This contrasts with 70% of Cornyn’s supporters reporting the same high level of intent.

Incumbent's Favorable Standing Under Pressure

Senator Cornyn, a two-decade incumbent, faces a less favorable personal image within this group. Paxton currently holds a net positive favorability rating of 56% favorable versus 43% unfavorable.

Cornyn, conversely, is slightly underwater, with 47% viewing him favorably and 51% viewing him unfavorably. The poll suggests the current margin is difficult to alter significantly.

Impact of Negative Information Testing

When voters were presented with both positive and negative details about each candidate, the overall lead for Paxton remained largely unchanged. This indicates the race may be resistant to late shifts.

However, one potential opening for Cornyn emerged in a specific scenario. When voters heard only negative information concerning Paxton, Cornyn moved ahead 48% to 41%, leaving 11% undecided.

This lead dissipated once criticisms of Cornyn were also introduced, shifting the results back to a 47% to 41% advantage for Paxton. GOP voters responded particularly strongly to attacks regarding Cornyn’s previous stances on gun control, immigration, and “amnesty,” as well as his votes supporting certain President Joe Biden nominees.

Trump Endorsement Uncertainty

The survey tested the potential impact of a presidential endorsement. In split-sample testing, Paxton maintained his lead regardless of whether President Donald Trump backed Cornyn or remained neutral.

A spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, Lauren French, stated, “John Cornyn is an incumbent senator who is already losing, in an electorate structurally hostile to him, with a negative personal image he cannot repair.” She added, “The numbers don’t show a candidate who is struggling. They show a candidate who is losing.” Cornyn’s campaign declined to offer comment.

National Republican Response and Runoff Context

National Republicans have publicly supported the incumbent. Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, asserted that Cornyn has a “proven record of showing up to champion President Trump’s agenda in the Senate and is the best candidate to beat radical James Talarico.”

The March primary necessitated this runoff, as no candidate secured a majority. Cornyn benefits from established institutional advantages, including superior fundraising capabilities and backing from establishment Republicans.

Paxton, conversely, has capitalized on grassroots energy that appears to be consolidating behind him. The winner of this runoff will advance to face Democratic state Representative James Talarico in the November general election. President Trump has indicated plans to weigh in on the contest but has not yet done so.

Poll Methodology Details

The survey polled 600 likely Republican runoff voters between March 19 and March 23. Data collection utilized a combination of live phone interviews and text-to-web responses. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.